National Bureau of Statistics: Clear Signs of Stabilization in First Two Months, 2026 Industry Recovery on Track

Ask AI · How can policy support stabilize and revive the real estate market?

On March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released macroeconomic and real estate data for January-February 2026.

In the real estate sector, due to high base effects last year, sales volume and new construction continued to decline, but positive signals also emerged: the growth rate of available sale areas hit a four-year low, and the ratio of new construction to sales further decreased.

The government work report from the Two Sessions stated that in 2026, efforts will be made to further stabilize the real estate market by implementing city-specific policies to control growth, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. The “14th Five-Year Plan” includes a chapter on “Vigorously boosting consumption,” which emphasizes “fully releasing the potential for rigid and improved housing demand”; it also proposes optimizing the supply of affordable housing, strengthening housing security for low-income urban families, and better meeting the basic housing needs of workers with difficulties and low income, gradually resolving phased housing difficulties for new residents and youth.

It is expected that in 2026, the demand side of the industry will see more favorable policies, including more tangible measures such as tax and fee reductions and home purchase incentives, with affordable housing becoming a key pillar to enhance demand-side certainty and development.

In line with industry expectations, due to high last year’s base, new home transaction volumes continued to decline year-on-year at the beginning of 2026.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-February 2026, the area of new commercial housing sold was 92.3 million square meters, down 13.5% year-on-year, with the monthly decline narrowing by 1.3 percentage points compared to December 2025; the transaction value was 818.6 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4 percentage points from December 2025.

In terms of funds received by real estate companies, personal mortgage loans amounted to 112.8 billion yuan, down 41.9% year-on-year. Inventory growth rate approached zero, with the pending sale area at the end of February at 800 million square meters, a 0.1% increase year-on-year—the smallest since 2022.

The government work report from the Two Sessions pointed out that in 2026, efforts will continue to stabilize the real estate market. Many regions are actively promoting new policies to stabilize the market, such as Shenzhen allowing the purchase of affordable housing without entering the waiting list; Hohhot offering a total subsidy of 2% of the purchase price, up to 50,000 yuan; and Shanghai launching programs to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing.

Taking Shanghai’s post-Lunar New Year policies as an example, these measures involve relaxing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund policies, and reducing property taxes. Non-Shanghai residents with one year of social security can buy property, and residents with a five-year residence permit can also purchase homes—significantly easing restrictions. After these policy adjustments, Shanghai’s new home market rebounded noticeably, with over 2,300 new home contracts signed online in the first week of March 2026, a 10% year-on-year increase despite the high base in early March 2025.

With clear policy direction from the central government and ongoing local efforts to stabilize the market, the trend of new home transactions in 2026 is expected to further accelerate toward stabilization.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-February 2026, the area of housing construction by real estate development enterprises was 5.35 billion square meters, down 11.7% year-on-year. Residential construction area was 3.71 billion square meters, down 11.9%. The new construction area was 50.84 million square meters, down 23.1%, with residential new construction at 36.95 million square meters, down 23.3%.

Meanwhile, the scale of new housing starts was 54.7% of the sales volume, hitting a historic low. Although the sales volume of new homes at the beginning of the year still declined year-on-year, industry inventory pressures continued to ease, and supply-demand relations are improving at an accelerated pace. Coupled with the Ministry of Natural Resources’ early-year release of Document No. 38, which states that new urban construction land should generally not be used for commercial real estate development, it is expected that new construction will remain below sales volume throughout the year, speeding up inventory reduction.

In January-February 2026, the nationwide completed area of housing was 63.2 million square meters, down 27.9%. Residential completions totaled 46.25 million square meters, down 26.9%, with the decline expanding by 9.8 percentage points compared to 2025. Policy-wise, the 2026 government work report proposed further strengthening the “guaranteed delivery” whitelist system to prevent debt defaults; the “14th Five-Year Plan” explicitly states that the basic systems for commodity housing development, financing, and sales will continue to be improved. With ongoing improvements in industry regulations and the white list system providing support, it is expected that in 2026, the total area of housing completed nationwide will adjust in tandem with new sales and new construction, moving toward a new balanced scale.

The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in January-February 2026, total real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 6.1 percentage points compared to 2025.

The current scale of real estate development investment exceeds new home sales by about 17.4%, mainly thanks to ongoing efforts by local governments to stabilize the market and gradually restore enterprise confidence, enabling key projects to advance steadily and high-quality land parcels to be successfully auctioned.

Taking Guangzhou’s Phase I Ma Chang land parcel as an example, after 243 rounds of bidding, it was sold for 23.6 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 26.7%, successfully meeting Guangzhou’s land transfer expectations of “Leading the race and winning at the start.”

In 2026, the real estate industry is expected to steadily recover and continue to stabilize.

On the policy front, both central and local governments will continue efforts to stabilize the market by implementing city-specific measures, optimizing affordable housing supply, and reducing home purchase costs to release housing demand.

Against this backdrop, it is expected that new home sales will accelerate toward stabilization in the second half of the year, supported by continued policy benefits on the demand side. The scale of new construction will remain at a reasonable low level, balancing inventory reduction with high-quality new supply, leading to a year-on-year decline in available sale areas. With favorable interest rates under relaxed financing conditions and improved supply-demand relations, housing prices are expected to further stabilize.

Meanwhile, the scale of development investment will again be lower than new home sales, with industry cash flow remaining positive, boosting confidence on the supply side and moving the industry toward a new, stable, and healthy development model.