Morgan Stanley прогнозує, що скорочення поставок з Близького Сходу спричинить підвищення цін на алюміній, а цільові рівні цін були оприлюднені.

Investing.com - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on aluminum prices due to increased shutdowns of Middle Eastern smelters and ongoing disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The company reports that the region is shutting down a capacity of 564,000 tons per year, accounting for 0.8% of global capacity, which exacerbates the tight supply situation in the global market.

Shutdowns in the Middle East further restrict supply, with Mozambique having shut down a 500,000-ton-per-year smelter earlier this month. The region produces 9% of the world’s aluminum but only 3% of alumina and 1.3% of bauxite, making it heavily dependent on raw materials imported through the blocked strait.

Raw material supply is becoming a concern for smelters in the region, which require about 2 tons of bauxite to produce 1 ton of alumina, and 2 tons of alumina to produce 1 ton of aluminum. According to Platts on March 11, raw material inventories at Alba in Bahrain are very low, while Emirates Global Aluminium has only 2 to 3 weeks of buffer stock.

Morgan Stanley has set a bullish target price of $3,700 per ton for aluminum in fiscal year 2026. The firm notes that, besides the supply disruptions in the Middle East, factors such as limited Chinese supply, slowed power supply, Indonesia’s ramp-up capacity, and challenges in expanding production in other regions also support prices.

The forward curve for aluminum has shifted to a steep contango with spot premiums, indicating market tightness, while warehouse stock levels at the London Metal Exchange are at their lowest since May 2025. Regional premiums are rising, with prices in Japan, Europe, and the US increasing more than the LME benchmark price.

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