Final warning! The world's most dangerous man presses the pause button. Under the cloud of war, where are your $BTC and $ETH safe-haven?

Market analysis indicates that Trump’s approach to conflicts follows a predictable script. Recent vague statements about Iran are not signals of retreat but tests of negotiation conditions. An independent macro research system has reviewed all conflicts since his inauguration and distilled a ten-step “conflict script.”

This script begins with verbal pressure. For example, two months before the first military strike on Iran, Trump had been continuously pressuring on social media to urge the other side to “reach an agreement.” This pattern is also clear in Venezuela and EU tariff cases. The second step is demonstrating strategic posture through military deployments or publicly coordinating with allies to enhance credibility, such as meeting with Intel CEO in August 2025 and ultimately reaching a government equity agreement.

The third step is the iconic “Friday night raid.” Research shows that from June 2025 to February 2026, almost all major actions occurred from Friday night to early Saturday morning. This timing is chosen to avoid trading hours, giving markets the weekend to digest information, while leaving room to observe market reactions and subsequent negotiations.

Steps four to six describe how the market is “educated.” After conflict erupts, the market initially tends to bet on a quick resolution, leading to sharp volatility during Sunday night trading and possible reversal before Monday open. But when investors bottom fish, they often face counterattacks from Trump’s rhetoric like “war can go on forever.” Subsequently, market psychology undergoes a structural shift, beginning to price in “longer duration,” evidenced by oil prices breaking key levels and stocks hitting new lows.

Step seven signals conditional de-escalation, i.e., the current stage. The time window from market pricing in “longer duration” to the appearance of de-escalation signals is highly uncertain. Historical cases show that catalysts for triggering a pause are either the attacked party actively seeking peace or structural market fractures. Step eight involves feedback loops between markets and politics. Oil prices, stock markets, and inflation data have become part of the negotiation environment, directly linked to Trump’s three major policy goals: “peace president,” suppressing inflation, and lowering gasoline prices.

Step nine is reaching an agreement and narrative construction. The research suggests every confrontation ends with a narrative of “maximum pressure for concessions.” The tenth step is violent market re-pricing. Since investors are generally in defensive positions when the agreement is announced, once uncertainty dissipates, rapid position unwinding occurs, causing stocks to surge and oil prices to plummet.

The study outlines three scenarios for the next two to four weeks: first, a brief escalation followed by a sudden shift in negotiation language, with markets reversing sharply; second, manageable conflict continuing with an agreement later this month under pressure; third, regional escalation leading to triple-digit oil prices and deep re-pricing of risk assets. Given historical precedents and the context of midterm elections, the third scenario is less likely.

The core conclusion is that Trump is a dealmaker. He dislikes “perpetual war” and is better at pushing escalation to leverage points, ultimately ending with a “deal.” Since taking office nearly 13 months ago, every conflict he’s involved in has ended with an agreement. For traders, recognizing and following this pattern could lead to substantial gains.

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