BitMart Research Institute Weekly Highlights: Macroeconomic and Cryptocurrency Markets Amid Geopolitical Risks and Stagflation Game Theory

Recently, the global financial markets are in a sensitive phase with multiple variables intertwined. The Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, and inflation expectations are rising again. On a macro level, “stagflation trading” and “soft landing trading” are fiercely competing; the crypto market, however, is showing an independent trend. Bitcoin (BTC) has led the rebound ahead of the U.S. stock market, with institutional and retail holdings clearly diverging, and the short-term market direction gradually becoming clearer. The BitMart Research Institute provides the latest analysis and outlook based on core macro and crypto market variables.

1. Macroeconomics: Middle East Disrupts Energy Supply, U.S. Stagflation Risk Rises

1. Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Energy Supply Shock

The current global market focus is on the Middle East situation. The conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran directly threatens the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may interfere with oil tanker passage using drones or other means, causing shipping insurance to halt and ships to reroute, posing significant supply disruption risks for global crude oil and natural gas. If the situation further escalates, major Gulf oil producers could be forced to halt production within weeks to a month. International oil prices have already fluctuated sharply, approaching $120 per barrel at times.

2. U.S. Employment Data Shows Broad Weakness

Despite being overshadowed by geopolitical news, the latest U.S. employment data still reveals weakness. Core industries such as manufacturing, real estate, services, IT, healthcare, and education are all experiencing layoffs or slowing growth. Meanwhile, labor force participation has declined, and unemployment has risen, indicating that the actual employment situation is more severe than the surface data suggests, with ongoing downward pressure on the economy.

3. Inflation Rebound Limits Federal Reserve’s Rate Cuts

Rising oil prices combined with adjustments in CPI calculation methods (interpolation) are expected to push U.S. CPI significantly higher in the coming months. As a result, market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 have been sharply revised downward, with mainstream forecasts now only anticipating two rate cuts. The easing cycle is delayed, and its intensity has weakened, becoming a consensus.

4. U.S. Stocks Volatile and Weak, Asset Allocation Favoring Defense

In the short term, U.S. stocks are likely to remain volatile and weak, with indices fluctuating between 6,700 and 7,000 points, and a higher probability of falling below 6,700. If the Middle East situation suddenly eases, markets may rebound quickly due to short covering. Currently, the market swings between “stagflation trading” and “soft landing trading.” If energy shocks continue to drag down the economy, stagflation trading will dominate.

In terms of allocation, a hedging approach is recommended: focus on oil and gas sectors, fertilizer companies benefiting from European-American natural gas price spreads, and be cautious of debt default risks in AI supply chains and software companies driven by private equity funds, to guard against phase liquidity shocks.

2. Crypto Market: BTC Leads the Rally, Institutional and Retail Positions Diverge

1. BTC Rebounds First, Short-Term Test of $80,000 Possible

BTC has rebounded strongly after market panic, reaching a high of $74,000. It is currently oscillating between $60,000 and $74,000, exhibiting the classic cycle of leading the decline before the stock market and leading the rebound afterward. In the short term, BTC still has rebound momentum and is likely to challenge the $80,000 level, possibly entering a consolidation phase following the stock market.

2. Derivatives Signals: Leverage Rises, Hedging Demand Increases

Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) remains negative, with active sell orders slightly dominant; however, during price corrections, open interest in futures continues to rise, indicating increasing leverage. Funding rates for perpetual contracts have temporarily turned negative (longs pay shorts), often indicating a bottom phase. Put options premiums have surged, showing investors’ increased willingness to hedge downside risks.

3. Institutions Continue Accumulating, Retail and Large Holders Diverge

Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw slight net inflows. MicroStrategy invested about $1.2 billion in a single week (buying approximately 17,000 BTC), setting a new weekly record for accumulation. Crypto-related U.S. stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy surged, reflecting some funds positioning early for favorable policies and regulations.

On-chain and DEX data show that small wallets (retail investors) hold over 60% long positions, while quant funds and large holders tend to be short, indicating a clear divergence in sentiment between institutions and retail investors.

4. Altcoins Remain Calm, Focused on Top Assets

The altcoin sector currently lacks a clear narrative or capital inflow. Aside from a few popular meme coins, most altcoins are underperforming, with market attention still concentrated on BTC and a few top assets.

3. Summary and Outlook

On the macro front, Middle East geopolitical risks and energy supply shocks are the biggest short-term variables. The stagflation logic is gradually strengthening, with U.S. stocks under pressure and defensive or hedging assets favored. The crypto market is showing relative independence, with BTC demonstrating resilience supported by institutional accumulation. There is still potential for short-term rebounds, but watch out for the impact of U.S. stock corrections on the linkage.

The BitMart Research Institute reminds investors to closely monitor developments in the Middle East, U.S. inflation data, and Federal Reserve statements. In a high-volatility environment, control positions carefully, implement risk hedging, and prioritize liquid, top-tier assets and sectors with genuine demand.