Great Wall Strategy: Coordinated Policy Efforts to Chart a New Vision for High-Quality Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan

On March 6, 2026, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress held a press conference, where leaders from the five core economic departments—the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, People’s Bank of China, and China Securities Regulatory Commission—collectively responded to questions from domestic and foreign journalists.

1. How will the economic growth target for this year be achieved? What is the policy confidence and practical approach?

We have three main sources of confidence in achieving a growth target of 4.5%–5%: an economic scale exceeding 140 trillion yuan, globally recognized innovation momentum, and institutional advantages in effectively responding to risks and challenges.

At this press conference, Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, provided a clear path to realization, focusing on four areas of “strengthening.” In building a strong domestic market, the plan involves over 7 trillion yuan in investments, emphasizing the development of “six networks” (water, electricity, computing power, communication, underground pipelines, logistics), as well as new infrastructure like low-altitude economy and “AI+” initiatives, while also releasing consumption potential through policies supporting “two new” areas. To strengthen the modern industrial system, support includes 200 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special national bonds for equipment upgrades to optimize fundamentals, and clear cultivation of new pillar industries such as Beidou (targeting a trillion-yuan industry scale within five years) and artificial intelligence (aiming for over 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan). Breaking down large goals into specific investment amounts and industry scales demonstrates a pragmatic approach with strong operational feasibility, stabilizing societal expectations.

2. How do macro policies reflect a “more proactive” stance and “collaborative innovation”?

Fiscal policy has set three new records under a “more proactive” tone:

This year, general public budget expenditure first exceeded 30 trillion yuan, new government bonds reached 11.89 trillion yuan, and central transfers to local governments totaled 10.42 trillion yuan.

Most innovatively, a “fiscal-financial coordination to stimulate domestic demand” policy tool was established, with the central government allocating 100 billion yuan. Using methods like interest subsidies and guarantees, it mobilizes financial resources toward consumption and investment. The design is sophisticated: personal consumption loan interest subsidies have no sector restrictions, with a single subsidy cap of 3,000 yuan, and the process is “immediate approval and enjoyment,” aiming to resolve the contradiction of “strong supply but weak demand” with a small but powerful approach.

The monetary policy continues to be moderately relaxed, maintaining reasonably ample liquidity, with structural tools focused on supporting expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small- and micro-enterprises. This precise coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, along with innovative tools, marks a shift from simple aggregate expansion to mechanism design and efficiency enhancement in macro regulation.

3. How will we continue to stimulate consumption potential and promote quality and expansion of consumption?

Policies across departments are highly focused on two main themes: “expanding domestic demand” and “promoting upgrading,” with close coordination. At this press conference, Minister Wang Wentao elaborated on a comprehensive consumption promotion strategy—from goods (such as a new version of old-for-new programs), services (focusing on transportation, housekeeping, travel, and other “6+3” sectors), to sinking markets (tailored strategies for core, growth, and basic regions)—directly aligning with the development plans of the National Development and Reform Commission and fiscal interest subsidy policies. When planning the “14th Five-Year” development of capital markets, the CSRC emphasizes improving the “investability” of listed companies, establishing a “long-term funds and investments” mechanism, and developing diverse equity financing, aiming to serve new productive forces from the financing side and resonate with industrial upgrading. The People’s Bank of China supports technological innovation and green transformation through targeted structural monetary tools. These measures are interconnected, forming a complete policy cycle from demand stimulation to supply upgrading, from short-term stabilization to medium- and long-term structural adjustment, with clear systemic features.

Risk Warning

Escalating geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve rate cuts below expectations, decline in overseas demand, increased volatility of the US dollar index

(Source: Great Wall Securities)