Bitcoin drops again, falling below $94,000, erasing all gains this year

On the 17th Beijing time, after rising to $96,600, Bitcoin once again plunged, dropping to $93,778.6 and erasing all gains this year. As of around 7 a.m., Bitcoin fell over 1%, breaking below $95,000. Several other cryptocurrencies also declined in tandem.

According to CoinGlass, over 150,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours globally.

On the news front, recent market sentiment has cooled on expectations of a rate cut in December, with the US overall risk appetite significantly declining.

Citing CME’s “Federal Reserve Watch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has fallen below 50%, now at only 44.4%. The chance of holding rates steady has increased to 55.6%. The probability of a total 25 basis point cut by January next year is 48.6%, with a 34.7% chance of no change, and a 16.7% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

According to previous reports from Cailian Press, short-term interest rate futures (which reflect the financial market’s expectations of Fed policy in real time) show that the likelihood of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates on December 10 has dropped to 47%, down from 67% earlier last week.

Morgan Stanley predicts that before the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, the Fed can obtain complete data on US September employment, inflation, retail sales, and Q3 GDP initial estimates, depending on whether the October and November employment reports are released on time.

Additionally, Bank of America and Nomura have already forecasted in their research reports that the Fed will hold steady in December.

According to CCTV News, on the 14th, Dallas Fed President Logan stated that unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in US inflation, she does not support another rate cut in December. Logan pointed out that US inflation remains on an upward trend, and returning to the 2% target will take time.

Previously, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the US government shutdown has led to missing economic data, making him more cautious about further rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook also stated that given the dual risks of inflation and labor market prospects, it is uncertain whether rates will be cut again in December.

(Note: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)