Trump's one statement (early morning Beijing time at 3:00) triggered a reversal in global markets. In an interview with CBS, he said, "I think the war is basically over."

Yesterday's market rally was not very precise; in fact, it made a "timing error." Trump said the war might end soon, but the issue is that ending the war does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will immediately reopen. Currently, there are still a large number of oil tankers and liquefied natural gas ships stranded near the strait, and insurance costs have not fallen back because of his statement. Iran stated that any Arab or European country that expels Israel and U.S. diplomats from its territory will have full authority and freedom to pass through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.
Essentially, the rise was driven by Trump's statement, which precisely hit the market's most sensitive nerve—the lack of "certainty." If the war truly ends, a stock market rally is reasonable, but yesterday's rise more resembles short covering. In the previous days, the market experienced a classic "stock decline, gold decline, dollar rise, U.S. Treasury yield rise" pattern—this is a liquidity tightening scenario. The sudden reversal yesterday was likely due to forced liquidations. This kind of "passive rise" often lacks sustained buying support.
Additionally, the first reaction of oil prices at Tuesday's open was "up," not "further down," indicating the situation is more complex than it appears. If in the next few days there is no actual reopening of navigation or Iran conducts an "asymmetric counterattack," the probability of a second surge in oil prices is very high.
In the past 48 hours, the market was trading on the war. In the next 48 hours, the market will be trading on—reality. $BTC ‌#特朗普称伊朗战事接近尾声