First Weeks of 2026: Why Bitcoin and Ethereum Traders Should Be Cautious of Low Liquidity

Entering the new year brings challenges for crypto traders that require deep thinking and careful strategies. In the first month of 2026, major events from the US market have triggered significant shifts in sentiment and the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, showing how macroeconomic data directly impacts the crypto market.

Attention to FOMC and Labor Market Data

In the early days of the year, the release of the FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting became a focal point for traders. Speculation about the timing and speed of potential interest rate cuts became a critical part of market sentiment, especially during periods of low trading volume.

At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims data provided important insights into the US labor market. Weaker data increased expectations for monetary easing, while stronger results prompted risk aversion in equities and the crypto market. This volatility highlights both the opportunities and risks of relying on the US economic calendar to guide digital asset directions.

Liquidity Risk and Technical Levels in BTC and ETH Success

During the long holiday season, limited liquidity became a key factor that cautious traders needed to watch. Even small market surprises caused amplified price movements, especially in the 24/7 crypto market without regular trading hours.

For Bitcoin, critical support levels near the $89,500–$90,000 zone became central to strategic analysis. When macro data is positive, Bitcoin gains momentum toward $90,500 and beyond, opening the way to the $93,000–$93,650 resistance zone. Conversely, increased bearish sentiment pushes prices back to the $87,500–$88,000 range, emphasizing the importance of protective strategies.

Ethereum follows Bitcoin’s direction but is more sensitive to market movements. Support near $2,900–$3,000 serves as a baseline for bullish positioning, while resistance at $3,200–$3,300 represents a more aggressive target for optimistic scenarios. If support at $2,900 breaks, deeper declines toward $2,700–$2,650 are likely.

Cautious Strategy for Crypto Traders at the Start of the Year

The key lesson from the events in the first month is the need for careful and disciplined trading strategies. During periods of limited liquidity and high technical uncertainty, traders should avoid relying on long-term trend formations. Instead, focusing on key technical levels and maintaining flexible positions is more practical.

Prudent market participants wait for clearer confirmation from the macro calendar before making significant commitments. Volatility spikes do not always follow the long-term trend, making risk management more critical than ever.

As momentum develops early in the year, Bitcoin and Ethereum will remain sensitive to US economic data and Federal Reserve signals. Traders who stay cautious and responsive to market changes will be better prepared to face the challenges of each week in this trading year.