Despite positive ETF inflows, XRP still risks dropping to $1 in 2026

The cryptocurrency market is about to enter the second quarter of 2026, and XRP is facing an interesting paradox: capital flows from ETF funds tracking this token remain positive, but the price is plunging under strong selling pressure. Despite these long-term inflows, on-chain data and derivatives market indicators tell a completely different short-term story. These signals suggest that the risk of XRP continuing to decline to the $1.00–$0.80 range remains very high, even with support from institutional investors via ETFs.

Despite ETF support, selling pressure still dominates XRP market

Since XRP lost its sideways accumulation zone between $2.70 and $3.30, the token has been in a steady downtrend. Currently, the price is at $1.41, marking a decline of over 40% from its peak. However, it’s notable that ETF-related capital flows for XRP remain positive, but this buying pressure has not been enough to counteract the sell-off from large holders.

Despite positive signals from institutional investors, the spot XRP market shows a completely opposite picture. The buy/sell ratio of takers on derivatives exchanges consistently stays below 1.0, indicating that sell orders dominate. This means that whenever XRP shows signs of recovery, traders are more like a stretched rubber band being pulled apart rather than being accumulated through buying.

Network activity slowing down: A warning sign of weakening demand

One of the clearest indicators of XRP’s current state is activity on its own XRP Ledger. The number of active addresses per day has fallen to around 19,000, significantly lower than during previous bullish phases. History shows that sustained price increases in XRP are always accompanied by network activity expansion and user engagement.

This narrowing of activity is a clear signal of declining spot demand. When artificial demand does not emerge, the price struggles to absorb new XRP issuance or sales by whales. That’s why, despite positive news (such as new payment agreements), XRP continues to face downward pressure.

Sellers dominate: Derivatives data diverges from ETF inflows

The contradiction between positive ETF flows and negative derivatives activity continues to deepen the XRP market picture. Data from derivatives exchanges show that open interest in XRP instruments has dropped sharply from over $3 billion to below $1 billion. This decline is not a sign of healthy accumulation but reflects traders actively reducing risk.

When open interest shrinks along with price, it often indicates “de-risking” rather than “accumulation.” Institutional investors may be buying via ETFs, but derivatives traders are pulling back. Despite support from one side, the other side of the balance sheet is weakening, creating a difficult equilibrium for XRP’s price.

Key price levels for XRP outlook through 2026

From a technical perspective, XRP is currently at a very sensitive point. The weekly Supertrend indicator has turned bearish for the first time this year, sending a strong warning signal of long-term structural weakening.

The price is heading toward a critical support zone at $1.78. This level marks the boundary between a still-viable uptrend and a deeper decline. If XRP cannot hold this level, larger liquidity gaps may open below.

Along the downtrend, the next major demand zone lies between $1.00 and $0.80. Many traders forecast that if the $1.77 level cannot be maintained in the short term, XRP will seek liquidity at lower levels before a significant recovery. The weekly RSI indicator remains in a downtrend, further confirming this outlook.

Conclusion: Despite positive signals, downside risk remains high

The presence of positive ETF inflows does not mean XRP will avoid a sharp decline. Despite this capital flow, short-term factors—weak network activity, dominant sellers, declining open interest—all point to a negative outlook.

ETF flows represent the long-term stance of institutional investors, but XRP’s price is still driven by spot activity, derivatives, and short-term market sentiment. Until demand returns, whales cease distribution, and traders no longer feel the need to withdraw, the downside risk remains elevated.

Until the end of 2026, the $1 level will be a key psychological threshold. It could serve as strong support or as a stopping point before the market seeks deeper liquidity around $0.80. Despite hopes from ETF flows, a bearish scenario must be seriously considered.