U.S. Stocks Close | Dow Jones Falls 784 Points, Dropping as Much as 1,162 Points, Nasdaq Declines 0.3% Oil Futures Rise Above $80, Brent Crude Surges Past $85

The Iran war enters its sixth day, with crude oil soaring and a new round of selling in the bond market; Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran is not seeking a ceasefire with the US and Israel, and believes there is no reason to negotiate, asserting that this conflict is a war initiated by the United States.

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The conflict has driven international oil prices higher, US bond yields up, and the Dow Jones once plunged over 1,162 points, closing down 784 points at 47,954; the Nasdaq once fell 1.35% but recovered most losses to close down 0.26% at 22,748; the S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 6,830.

NYMEX crude oil rose 8.5%, the largest single-day gain in nearly six years, closing at $81.01 per barrel, a new high since July 2024; Brent crude gained 4.93%, closing at $85.41.

The US dollar index rose above 99, up 0.3%, at 99.04; US long-term bond yields rebounded, temporarily at 4.14%.

The Middle East conflict is rapidly spreading across the region, including Qatar and Bahrain. Azerbaijan reports drone attacks, and Tehran claims its naval aircraft attacked a US oil tanker in the northern Persian Gulf.

Araghchi told NBC on Thursday that if President Trump decides to send ground troops into Iran, it would be a huge disaster for the US, and Iran is confident it can oppose US military forces.

He questioned, “Iran and the US have negotiated twice, and each time the US attacked Iran midway through negotiations. Why should we still negotiate with the US now?” When asked why Iran attacked several neighboring Arab countries during Ramadan, Araghchi said Iran did not attack Muslim countries, only US facilities.

According to Politico, the US Central Command is requesting the Pentagon to deploy additional military intelligence personnel to support military actions against Iran for at least 100 days, possibly extending into September, significantly longer than President Trump’s earlier estimate of four to five weeks.

Bloomberg reports that Poland’s central bank governor Adam Glapinski proposed selling part of Poland’s gold reserves, raising about $13 billion, to replace EU funding plans and strengthen defense cooperation with the US.

Gold spot prices in New York briefly fell 1.5% to as low as $5,062 per ounce on Thursday.

Nvidia closed relatively stable, up 0.16%; Microsoft rose 1.4%. Broadcom, a chipmaker, is optimistic about AI chip sales prospects, rising 4.8% against the market trend.

First Eagle Investment Management said that rising risks have led insurers to refuse coverage for shipping routes, causing the Strait of Hormuz to be paralyzed in recent days. Continued disruption could push oil prices higher and severely impact the global economy, especially China and other Asian markets heavily reliant on oil imports through the strait.

The firm noted that even if OPEC+ agrees to increase daily production by 206,000 barrels from April, most major oil-producing countries in the alliance depend heavily on exports through the Strait of Hormuz—meaning ongoing shipping disruptions could make additional output insufficient to ease supply tightness.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the UK will send four Typhoon fighter jets to Qatar to bolster regional defense. He also said the US has been granted permission to use UK airports for defense missions.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin believes that next week’s upcoming PCE data will show inflation remaining high for several months. With the conflict potentially pushing up key consumer prices, persistent inflation and strong recent employment data could alter the Fed’s outlook. The Fed’s rate cuts last year were based on rising labor market risks and declining inflation risks, but recent data suggest the situation has reversed.

For the week ending February 28, initial unemployment claims remained at 213,000, below the expected 215,000; continuing claims increased by 46,000 to 1.868 million, above the forecast of 1.845 million.

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Market trend:

【23:10】Iran retaliates, expanding the Persian Gulf front, oil prices surge to post-war highs; Dow drops 496 points

【22:30】Iran conflict continues to escalate, Brent crude surpasses $84 per barrel; Dow drops 345 points, Nasdaq down 0.2%

【17:45】Iran states it has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz; oil prices fluctuate; Dow futures fall 120 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.1%

【13:06】Dow futures down 139 points at 48,657; S&P futures down 9 points at 6,866; Nasdaq futures down 36 points or 0.1% at 25,092.

【13:03】【BTC trend】Bitcoin surged past $73,000 amid regulatory concerns and geopolitical hedging; “Crocodile King” Dario warns of major risks

【12:37】【US stock analysis】VIX drops, US stocks improve; market sentiment still cautious, oil prices within “manageable” range

【12:29】【Iran crisis】China reportedly instructs major refineries to suspend diesel and gasoline exports, cancel new contracts, and revoke existing shipping agreements

【12:14】【Iran crisis】Natural gas prices spike; EU may reconsider Russian gas import bans

【11:48】【AI + chips】Meta plans to develop custom chips for training AI models

【11:36】【AI + defense】After Anthropic was blocked by US government, reports suggest ongoing negotiations with the Department of Defense on AI agreements

【09:57】【US rate cuts】Fed Board member Milan: Iran conflict won’t change the need to cut rates; reiterates four rate cuts this year

【09:33】AI + Nvidia | Jensen Huang: OpenAI will go public by year-end; no longer considering a $100 billion investment

【08:47】【AAPL】Apple launches affordable MacBook Neo starting at 4,799 yuan, four color options, powered by iPhone A18 Pro chip, targeting students and competing with Windows PCs and Chromebooks

【08:15】【AI + AVGO earnings】Broadcom’s AI revenue doubles; AI chip sales expected to exceed $100 billion next year; stock up 0.5% after hours

【07:52】【Layoffs】Morgan Stanley reportedly to cut 3%, involving investment banking, trading, and asset management

【06:49】【Iran crisis】White House: Will take full control of Iranian airspace in the coming hours; Spain has agreed to cooperate with US military (ongoing updates)

$1 or less for March 4 US stock market overview====

Tuesday: Trump announces insurance guarantees and naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points

The fourth day of the Iran war, stock markets moved in line with news of the conflict; due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices once rose 9.5%, reaching $77.98; the Dow once fell 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; the S&P 500 once dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; the Nasdaq once fell 2.7%, low at 22,124.

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The US announced that it would provide insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which may help restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. The Dow’s decline narrowed, closing down only 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,501; the S&P fell 0.9% to 6,816; the Nasdaq declined 1% to 22,516.

Oil prices ended the day up 5%, with NY crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on social platform Truth Social that he had ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade passing through the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the US Navy would begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the United States will ensure that energy supplies to the world can flow freely. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The US dollar index briefly rose 1.3% but settled back to a 0.7% increase, at 99.04. The 10-year US Treasury yield remained around 4%.

Gold prices remained under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver fell 8%, to $82.23.

Manulife noted that recent rises in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries about future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict persists for more than several weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more pronounced.

Pictet Wealth Management in Switzerland said that in the very short term, the Iran war will likely be negative for stocks, as markets digest the geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. However, history shows that such negative impacts are usually short-lived, and investors should continue prioritizing tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm added that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could retreat to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be relatively limited. Nonetheless, central banks might adopt a more cautious stance in the near term. The Fed could delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the US’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets might see the US as more resilient than Asian countries that are heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets continue to update; details on the next page.

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Market trend:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran crisis】Franklin Templeton CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, the conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.

【11:19】【Iran crisis】Oil surged another 1% early; analysis: the conflict is unlikely to last long; NY crude at $70–75, gold likely to retreat after the easing of hostilities.

【10:50】【AI + competition】OpenAI users launch boycott movement; Anthropic’s Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becoming the top app in the US Apple App Store.

【10:46】【AI + defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense to explicitly prohibit AI from monitoring US citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence agencies.

【10:36】【US tariffs】US Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can be processed promptly.

【10:10】【AI front line】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debts.

【09:02】【Iran crisis】Liu: Will implement plans to curb oil prices; Trump administration reportedly has no current plans to use strategic petroleum reserves.

【08:39】【Fed rate cuts】Yellen: Iran conflict adds new uncertainties to US monetary policy; energy prices are a key factor.

【08:19】【US economy】JPMorgan’s Dimon warns that inflation could be a “party pooper” for the US economy after the “cockroach theory.”

【08:08】【AI + Nvidia chips】US considers restricting Nvidia’s H200 chips, with a limit of 75,000 units per Chinese company.

【07:25】【Iran crisis】Trump: Four main goals in striking Iran; US Defense Department reports firing tens of thousands of missiles over two days, including ground-launched missiles from the US (ongoing updates).