Institutional buying absorbs shadow banking selling pressure: Bitcoin 78K retest window opens

Institutional Buying Is Eating Up Shadow Bank Selling Pressure

Michael Saylor recently redefined the term “price suppression” as “corporate buying directly crushing it.” In his tweet, he tagged $MSTR, $BTC, and $STRC, clearly positioning MicroStrategy’s strategy as a solution to hedge against re-pledge risks. The tweet was retweeted by 15 real follower accounts, timed just as ETF weekly net inflows hit about $1.1 billion. MicroStrategy also just bought 3,015 BTC at an average price of $67,700 (total holdings reaching 720,737 BTC). The phrase “We buy more than they sell” garnered 955,000 views, successfully shifting market focus from miner sell pressure to the math of corporate buying power.

Context: Shadow banking pressure is overestimated. Yes, traditional banks’ absence led to re-pledging, with the same collateral leveraged 3-4 times. But that didn’t prevent prices from rebounding 22% from the $60K low. On-chain data shows 43% of supply is in unrealized loss, yet no signs of panic selling. Miner shift to AI is real, but the hash price at $30 hasn’t caused structural damage.

• Technical Outlook (Constructive): RSI remains neutral across multiple timeframes (51-63), 4-hour and daily MACD histogram turning bullish. Price retested $71.9K and found support at $72K.
• Derivatives Sentiment (Bullish): Open interest at $99B, funding rate +0.09%. $292M in liquidations mainly short positions—more likely to squeeze than crash.
• On-chain Valuation (Reasonable and Cheap): MVRV at 1.33 (fair), NVT at 21 (low), NUPL at 0.25 (hope phase). Continued ETF inflows likely to sustain strength.
• Retail Participation Divergence: The above tweet has 279,000 views, but discussions around STRC’s 11.5% gains are mixed—some see it as clever, others worry about dilution. Data shows $198.7M in STRC trading volume can buy roughly 1,000 BTC.

Retail Still Absent, But Institutions Have Built a Floor

The divergence is clear: bears are still focused on suppression mechanisms, while bulls see Saylor’s ongoing purchases as a catalyst to push toward $78K (near MSTR’s cost basis around $76K). Although Cointelegraph mentioned options skewness leaning bearish by 10%, impacting sentiment, the $1.1B ETF net inflow—BlackRock alone about $500M—quickly shifted focus back to “keep buying.” Market sentiment has shifted from February’s “panic dump” to “institutions building a bottom.” MSTR’s perpetual preferred stock allows continuous buying regardless of spot prices. Over 720,000 BTC are locked long-term, tightening circulating supply—if macro liquidity loosens, upside potential may be underestimated.

Conclusion: Institutional buying has become dominant. Shadow banking mechanisms are mostly noise. If markets aren’t already preparing for a retest of $78K, they’re a step late. Compared to traders trying to bottom fish, long-term holders and funds have structural advantages.

Judgment: It’s already somewhat late to follow the institutional narrative; the real edge belongs to long-term holders and institutional capital. Traders who don’t stand on the floor are at a disadvantage.