The US-Iran War Has Just Officially Begun

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Abstract generation in progress

We are standing on the brink of World War III.

And this war will be a hybrid conflict, unlike anything before. On Monday, we may face a severe crash. Everything could plummet within just 2 days:

  • Stocks
  • Cryptocurrencies
  • Bonds
  • Even the US dollar If you hold any assets, YOU MUST READ THIS: THIS IS NOT LIKE recent attacks and threats. This is not a one-day campaign, and Trump has confirmed that. The US military has been prepared for months. AND THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING. When a conflict escalates from news to consequential action, markets will stop reacting with shock and panic. Prices will start responding over time. The worst-case scenario for us is: A full-scale World War III Iran could disrupt the order at the Strait of Hormuz, and the entire macroeconomy could change in an instant. Over 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption or issue in this region could lead to a sudden spike in oil prices:
  • Sharp increase in oil prices = rising inflation risk
  • Rising inflation risk = sharply higher yields
  • Higher yields = liquidity tightening
  • Liquidity tightening = risk-averse market Risk aversion means rejecting:
  • High-valuation tech stocks
  • Speculative growth assets
  • Cryptocurrencies and $BTC When liquidity dries up, big investors stop thinking about buying. They start thinking about selling immediately. Stock declines are not because companies disappear. They are sold off due to pressure from investors and leverage. $BTC drops because it is traded as a highly liquid asset. It is a high-risk asset, and during panic times, high-risk and highly liquid assets always fall FIRST. Brent crude oil prices are now near multi-month highs, and shipping costs in the Middle East have skyrocketed. This is a market signal that risk premiums are increasing, even before a full domino reaction occurs. BUT this could still be just a mild SHOCK where both sides retaliate, claim victory, and the market gradually calms after the initial panic. Events like these initially create CHAOS but also CREATE OPPORTUNITIES. It may sound SCARY, but I will keep updating you on everything.
BTC2.56%
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