The Kondratiev Cycle in 2026: Understanding the True Drivers of Wealth

We have reached February 28, 2026, and the prediction made a decade earlier by leading economists is gradually becoming reality. The Kondratiev Cycle, this fundamental theory governing major economic transformations approximately every 50 years, is precisely at its tipping point. Those who understand this cyclical dynamic will grasp one of the greatest opportunities of their lives, while others will regret ignoring these obvious signals, especially in the cryptocurrency sector.

Friends, it’s time to clarify which economic cycle we are truly in. Because successful investing is not a matter of luck or superstition — it’s simply about respecting the major economic laws that have governed societies for two centuries.

Economic Fundamentals: Why Cycles Drive Wealth

The wealth accumulated over a lifetime depends less on our personal efforts than we imagine, and much more on the phases of the global economy’s cycles. Look at China over the past 20 years: coal mine owners in Shanxi, often without formal education, have become wealthy by finding a mine — not because of their expertise, but because they positioned themselves in the right economic cycle. Similarly, property owners in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, many with only primary education, have generated monthly income sufficient to fund decades of comfortable living for others.

This wealth gap does not reflect effort differences: construction workers and students working hard for ten years labor much more than these entrepreneurs, yet the financial results are incomparably different. It’s the power of the economic cycle — those who position themselves at the right moment can achieve in a few years what others will never accomplish in decades of toil.

The First Three Economic Cycles: Short to Medium Term

The Kitchin Cycle and Inventory Fluctuations

In 1923, British economist Joseph Kitchin published detailed research on prices, interest rates, and banking factors in the UK and US from 1890 to 1922. He discovered that economic cycles are actually composed of nested systems: small cycles of about 40 months (3 to 5 years) grouped within larger cycles.

Why exactly 40 months? On one hand, a typical industrial expansion cycle lasts 1 to 2 years, after which fundamentals change; on the other, corporate debt repayment cycles span 2 to 3 years. For example, perpetual bank bonds have an average duration of 3.34 years.

This inventory cycle has four distinct phases: active stock replenishment, passive replenishment, active disinvestment, and passive disinvestment. Asset prices fluctuate in sync with these phases, creating opportunities for those who buy at the lows and sell at the highs.

The Juglar Cycle and Equipment Investment

In 1860, French economist Clement Juglar identified a broader economic cycle averaging 9 to 10 years. Known as the Juglar Cycle, it is driven by the renewal of industrial equipment. Machines and devices naturally wear out; after about 10 years of use, they become obsolete — either physically or technologically.

When equipment renewal reaches maturity, companies initiate a cycle of increased investment. Once this renewal is complete, demand contracts sharply, forcing the economy into a downturn. Accounting standards reflect this reality by setting depreciation periods for different asset categories.

The Kuznets Cycle: the 20-Year Real Estate Cycle

Simultaneously, American economist Simon Kuznets observed a longer cycle of about 15 to 20 years, closely linked to real estate and demographic cycles. The real estate acquisition cycle follows a generational logic: individuals buy their first property around age 20, improve their home around age 40, and 20 years later, the next generation reaches adulthood and seeks their own housing.

The Kondratiev Cycle: The Secret of Great Fortunes

The Foundational Theory

In 1925, brilliant Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev published his findings in “Long Waves in Economic Life.” Examining over a century of data — wholesale price indices, interest rates, wage levels, foreign trade volumes, and coal production in the US, UK, and France — he identified a major economic cycle averaging about 50 years.

Between 1780 and 1920, Kondratiev subdivided this period into three major cycles: the first (1789–1849, 60 years) marking the start of the Industrial Revolution; the second (1849–1896, 47 years) representing the railway and steel era; the third (1890s–1920s) encompassing electrification and automobiles.

Each Kondratiev cycle divides into four phases: recovery, prosperity, decline, and depression. Technological bubbles typically mark the prosperity phase, while structural reforms often signal the onset of depression.

The Five Major Cycles and Wealth Dynasties

The first Kondratiev cycle (1780–1840) — Steam and Textile Revolution: The Rothschild family emerged as a legendary financial dynasty capitalizing on these transformations.

The second cycle (1840–1910) — Railroads, Engines, Steel: The Rockefeller family amassed enormous wealth dominating these sectors.

The third cycle (1910–1970) — Electricity, Heavy Chemistry, Automobiles: The Ford family wrote their entrepreneurial saga during this era.

The fourth cycle (1970–2020/2030) — Internet, Electronics, Telecommunications: Tech entrepreneurs like Bill Gates built unprecedented empires of wealth.

The fifth cycle (2020–2070) — Artificial Intelligence, Renewable Energy, Life Sciences: This cycle is expected to surpass all previous ones, creating a social wealth myth never seen before.

Zhou Jintao and the Validation of Predictions

In China, Zhou Jintao, a renowned researcher in economic cycles, empirically validated this theory. He successfully predicted the 2007 subprime crisis, stated that 2013 would mark a turning point in the real estate cycle, anticipated global asset price turbulence in 2015, and forecasted that the Chinese economy would bottom out in the first quarter of 2016.

His famous statement: “Wealth in life depends on economic cycles.” Before his untimely death, Zhou Jintao delivered a major speech in 2016 asserting that 2016–2026 would be the depression phase of the Fourth Kondratiev Cycle, setting the stage for a new beginning.

For Zhou Jintao, the precise timeline was as follows:

• 1975–1982: Depression phase of the previous cycle
• 1982 onward: Recovery of the current Kondratiev cycle
• 1991–1994: Tech bubble — sign of prosperity
• 2004–2008: Golden phase of the Fourth Kondratiev Cycle
• 2004–2015: Decline phase
• 2016–2026: Depression phase

We Are in 2026: The Dawn of a New Kondratiev Cycle

Now, it’s February 2026. Zhou Jintao’s predictions regarding the 2016–2026 depression phase have proven accurate. More importantly, we are precisely crossing the threshold between two major Kondratiev Cycles.

Starting this year, 2026, we enter an upswing of the Fifth Kondratiev Cycle — the cycle of wealth for visionary financial players. An unprecedented bull market is on the horizon, driven by revolutions in artificial intelligence, renewable energies, and biotechnology.

It is exactly at this point in the Kondratiev Cycle that cryptocurrency markets accelerate. Historically, each new major economic cycle has produced its own wealth stars. The Rothschilds benefited from steam, the Rockefellers from oil, Gates from the internet. Those who understand and embrace the new 2026–2075 Kondratiev Cycle could become the Rothschilds and Rockefellers of our era.

Contrary to some beliefs, this does not require working harder — only positioning oneself correctly at the right moment in the economic cycle. Three major opportunities theoretically present themselves to each individual in their lifetime, each aligned with transformations of the Kondratiev Cycle. Seizing just one can propel you into the middle class; ignoring all three means remaining economically stagnant.

Understanding trends, respecting risks, maintaining flexibility — this is how you become a winner of destiny and luck in the sixth great Kondratiev Cycle. History shows that when a technology penetrates all aspects of society, it reaches its final phase. Artificial intelligence in 2026 is only at its beginning, meaning the new Kondratiev Cycle offers a full decade of wealth-building opportunities.

Those who grasp this window in 2026 will likely experience an economic transformation. Those who let it pass will probably regret that decision for the rest of their lives.