The 30-Month Pattern That Rhymes: Why the Current Bitcoin Cycle Follows the Same Logic

We are in February 2026, and Bitcoin is trading around $65.97K, well below its recent all-time high of $126.08K. In this moment of apparent uncertainty, it’s worth asking a question that rhymes with the reality of market cycles: what is really happening here? The answer may lie in a pattern that repeats every 30 months since 2021.

If you look back, you’ll see that the current cycle isn’t different in terms of price structure. And that’s exactly what should concern—or reassure—us.

The First Rise and the Inevitable Shock

In March 2021, Bitcoin hit its first major top of the previous cycle. The market was overheated. Retail was exuberant. The RSI was stretched to the extreme. Then, a sharp correction followed.

Now, change the scenario to December 2024. Bitcoin again reaches its first major peak. Conditions? Overheated. RSI? Again stretched. The subsequent correction? Equally sharp. Same structure. Different year. The market always cools down after a vertical expansion, and no technological innovation or sentiment change has altered this basic law.

The Second Top and the Silent Divergence

The pattern deepened in October 2021, when Bitcoin advanced to a second top. It looked promising. It seemed strong. But there was a crucial detail: the momentum divergence. The RSI was weaker than at the first peak. The impulse was no longer the same.

Then came the long bleed. Weeks of red. Lower highs. Emotional exhaustion.

Now observe October 2025. A second top emerges again. And what appears? The same momentum divergence. The weaker RSI. The price rejection. Again, silent distribution in progress. The story doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes in a way that’s almost disturbing.

The Flat Base: The Silence Before the Rebuild

After the second top in 2021, Bitcoin didn’t immediately crash to a new cycle low. It compressed. The RSI was reset to bear market zones. The price wavered. Only after this structural reset did the true macro reversal begin.

We are in this same phase now, in 2026. The weekly RSI is near levels that historically mark exhaustion. The price hovers around previous ATH levels instead of collapsing dramatically. This phase is the most frustrating because nothing exciting happens. Charts look monotonous. News dries up. But structurally, this is exactly where cycles rebuild, where momentum is silently redefined.

The Time Factor: 30 Months Is No Coincidence

Here’s the core of how the cycle rhymes with itself: the peak of 2021 to the ATH of 2024 took approximately 30 months. That time was the true catalyst, not hope or hype.

If we mirror this same timeline from the second top in October 2025, the next expansion won’t happen quickly. It will extend into 2027–2028. This naturally aligns with projections of higher values in the coming years. Not by magic or irrational hope, but by the historical rhythm that the market seems to consistently respect.

The Complete Cycle: A Tested Recipe

Every Bitcoin cycle follows a remarkably consistent recipe:

Euphoria → Distribution at double top → Weeks of red → Momentum reset → Flat base → Delayed expansion

Currently, we are in the transition between the “weeks of red” and the “base-building” phase. If this cycle isn’t different in its price behavior—and there’s no evidence that it is—then the real move isn’t behind us. It’s not scheduled just for tomorrow. The larger structural move extends over years.

The Uncomfortable Truth That Rhymes with Reality

Bitcoin may simply be doing exactly what it has always done. Cycle after cycle. Pattern after pattern. If accepting this truth is uncomfortable, perhaps it’s because it doesn’t rhyme with our expectations of rapid growth.

But if the cycle continues on its historical rhythm, it means patience now and expansion later. It means 2026 could be boring. 2027 too. But 2028? That’s the story the 30 months promise to tell.