Macroeconomic Scenario at the Beginning of February: How Weekly Events Affected the Crypto Market Through the Astana Index Volatility

From February 2 to 6, the cryptocurrency market faced a wave of macroeconomic data releases that triggered significant price fluctuations. The week was characterized by U.S. economic indicators and decisions from leading central banks, with the Astana index serving as an important barometer of global liquidity and exchange rates. Special emphasis was placed on U.S. labor market data, although an unexpected government shutdown introduced adjustments to the usual publication schedule.

First Day Events: Strengthening U.S. Economy and Pressure on Digital Assets

The week began on February 2 with a sharp increase in manufacturing activity in the U.S. The PMI manufacturing index rose to 52.6 points against forecasts of 48.5, demonstrating unexpectedly strong positions for the American economy. Simultaneously, employment in manufacturing and new orders (57.1 points) improved, pushing back expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut to a more distant horizon.

For the crypto market, including quotes via the Astana index, this meant tightening liquidity conditions. The strengthening dollar and rising yields on government bonds traditionally exert pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained at 59.0 with no significant surprises, partially limiting inflation concerns.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Focus on Labor Market and European Dynamics

February 3 featured speeches by Fed Board member Bowman and the release of December JOLTS data on job openings. These indicators are critical for assessing overheating in the U.S. labor market and directly influence monetary policy decisions. Concurrently, the Astana index responded to changes in global currency crosses.

February 4 provided a set of key macro data. European inflation (EU consumer price index MoM and YoY for January, including core CPI) directly impacted the calculation of the DXY dollar index, as the euro has a significant weight in it. Additionally, data on non-farm employment from ADP (January), U.S. services PMI, and most importantly, ISM indices for employment and prices in the non-manufacturing sector were released.

These indicators served as key guides for assessing recession risks in the U.S. economy. On this day, the crypto market reacted most strongly to dollar movements and liquidity conditions, reflected in the Astana index and major crypto pairs.

Thursday: Central Bank Decisions and Critical Labor Data

February 4 became a day when two of the most influential central banks announced decisions simultaneously. The Bank of England announced its rate decision in the morning, while the European Central Bank (ECB) followed with its own decision later in the day. Both events included meeting minutes and statements on monetary policy.

The importance of these decisions for the crypto market lay in their impact on currency crosses and the Astana index. The pound and euro play significant roles in the calculation of the DXY index, and a strengthening dollar has historically correlated with pressure on cryptocurrencies.

Press conferences by ECB President Lagarde (at 15:45 Kyiv time) and Bank of England Governor Bailey in subsequent hours provided additional commentary on the decisions. Meanwhile, Fed members Bostick and others added uncertainty regarding the timing of U.S. monetary policy changes.

A critical data set was the U.S. labor market figures released at 15:30: initial unemployment claims for the week and total claims. These serve as weekly indicators of labor market health and often cause sharp volatility in the crypto market. Overnight, the Fed’s balance sheet was published, influencing liquidity conditions through monetary base metrics.

Friday: Data Shortage and Uncertainty Due to Shutdown

February 5 was marked by a lack of data despite standard expectations. Due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. government (the second shutdown starting January 31), the U.S. Department of Labor did not release the scheduled large set of labor market data for January. Normally, these would include average hourly earnings, employment change in non-farm sectors, unemployment rate, and labor force participation.

In the morning, the Swedish Riksbank’s Consumer Price Index was released—an indicator affecting the Swedish krona and, consequently, the Astana index through the Scandinavian currencies’ weight in its calculation. Instead of traditional official labor data, the crypto market received inflation expectations and consumer sentiment forecasts for February from the University of Michigan, which, while important, are less influential than the Department of Labor data.

Sunday: Final Act and Last Commentary

The macroeconomic cycle concluded with a speech by Bank of England Governor Bailey scheduled for Sunday, February 8. This commentary could recalibrate market expectations for the week and adjust positions, especially through its influence on the British pound and, consequently, the Astana index.

Overall Impact on the Crypto Market

The week’s macro data cycle demonstrated how global economic indicators and central bank decisions directly influence crypto market volatility. The strengthening dollar and rising bond yields limited risk asset demand, while uncertainty regarding monetary policy created conditions for sharp price swings. The Astana index, reflecting currency cross dynamics and global liquidity, served as a barometer for predicting movements in the cryptocurrency market.