#BTC行情分析 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis: The Key Battle Between Bulls and Bears

Technical Perspective “Twisting the Hemp”: The current market shows a typical cyclical conflict. The daily chart remains in a downtrend, with prices suppressed by moving averages; however, the 4-hour chart shows MACD golden cross and other bottoming rebound signals, indicating medium-term recovery momentum; meanwhile, the 1-hour and lower timeframes are in a correction phase of sharp rises and falls. This multi-cycle contradiction suggests the market is about to choose a direction, and volatility may intensify.
Macro and Capital Factors “Bulls and Bears Intertwined”: Although economists predict an 88% chance of Bitcoin rising by the end of the year based on historical models, and long-term believers continue to accumulate, short-term capital pressure is significant. Since October last year, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of over $8.6 billion, and the institutional benchmark iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also shows a breakdown in technical formation.
Macro Environment and Regulatory Dynamics
Regulatory Tightening: Domestic regulators have reiterated strict bans on virtual currency-related activities, especially demanding high compliance standards for RWA (Real-World Assets), making any illegal activities highly risky legally.
Macro Uncertainty: The market remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, global tariff wars, and other macro events, which increase the volatility of risk assets.
💡 Operation Strategy Recommendations
In the current market environment, investors are advised to remain cautious and strictly control risks. Core holdings (60%-70%): Allocate to Bitcoin and Ethereum as “ballast” assets for the portfolio.
Risk Points: Keep a close eye on ETF capital flows. If continuous net outflows occur, be alert to the risk of breaking support levels. Short-term traders: Focus on the $67,000 - $69,000 range. When the lower boundary stabilizes, consider light long positions aiming for the upper boundary; when resistance is met at the upper boundary and prices pull back, consider reducing positions. Always set strict stop-loss orders, e.g., exit if below $66,500. Medium to long-term investors: Use a phased accumulation strategy. The current price can serve as the first entry point; if prices pull back near $65,000, add to positions; in extreme cases, if it drops below $62,000, consider it a deep value zone. Bitcoin (BTC) - key range for high sell and low buy, control position size!
⚠️ Risk Control
Key Point (Most Important): Stay away from high leverage. The current market volatility is extremely high, with significant liquidation risks. Data shows that if BTC falls below $64,800, over $1.7 billion in long positions could be liquidated. It is recommended to keep leverage within 3x or avoid leverage altogether. Beware of policy “black swans”: domestic regulations on virtual currencies have tightened comprehensively, and any related activities may face legal risks, so thorough avoidance is necessary.
In summary, today’s market is a “game for the brave” and a “trial ground for the cautious.” In the face of uncertainty, following the principles of “buy big dips, buy small dips, wait and see when no dip, follow through when breaking out” might be more prudent than guessing the direction.