Mike Novogratz Says Crypto’s ‘Age of Speculation’ May Be Over — Real-World Assets Next

Alex Shilina

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 5:56 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Key Takeaways

Mike Novogratz said crypto’s “age of speculation” may be ending as institutions reshape risk appetite.

He expects tokenized real-world assets and tokenized stocks to lead the next phase, with lower returns.

Novogratz blamed the slump on a post-leverage wipeout hangover, not a single “smoking gun” event.

He said the industry needs a US market structure bill, including the proposed CLARITY Act, to restore “spirit.”

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said crypto’s “age of speculation” may be ending as more risk-averse institutions enter the market, pushing the industry toward tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) with “much lower returns,” according to remarks he made at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum in New York.

His comments come as Bitcoin has fallen sharply in early 2026.

At the time writing, BTC was down more than 21% year to date and nearly 50% from its October 2025 peak, after it dropped to about $60,062 last week.

No “Smoking Gun” This Time, Novogratz Says

Novogratz contrasted the current sell-off with 2022’s collapse after FTX failed, which he described as a “breakdown in trust.”

“This time, there’s no smoking gun,” he told CNBC. “You look around like, what happened?”

Instead, he pointed to a market still recovering from a major leverage wipeout that removed key participants.

October Leverage Wipeout Hit Retail, Market Makers

Novogratz highlighted an October 2025 leverage flush that “wiped out a lot of retail and market makers,” he said.

Data shows more than 1.6 million traders suffered a combined $19.37 billion in erased leveraged positions over 24 hours during that episode.

“Crypto is all about narratives, it’s about stories,” Novogratz told CNBC. “Those stories take a while to build … so when you wipe out a lot of those people, Humpty Dumpty doesn’t get put back together right away.”

“Retail” Wanted 10-to-1, Not “11% Annualized”

Novogratz said the market’s return profile may change as institutions grow their footprint.

“Retail people don’t get into crypto because they want to make 11% annualized,” he said. “They get in because they want to make 30 to one, eight to one, 10 to one.”

Some speculation will remain, Novogratz added, but he expects it to be “transposed or replaced” by using “these crypto rails” to deliver banking and financial services globally, centered on real-world assets with lower expected returns.

He also pointed to tokenized stocks as assets that will have “a different return profile.”

Context: Nazarov Has Made a Similar “RWAs First” Bet

Novogratz is not alone in forecasting a shift from token speculation to tokenized finance.

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Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov has argued that tokenized RWAs could eventually surpass the value of the broader crypto market, positioning tokenization as the next major adoption phase.

That narrative matters because it offers a “replacement story” for the post-wipeout market: less reflexive upside chasing, more yield-like instruments and regulated wrappers.

Tokenized Treasuries Already Sit Around $10 Billion

On-chain RWAs are still small relative to traditional markets, but they are no longer theoretical.

RWA.xyz, a market-data dashboard for tokenized assets, shows about $24.27 billion in “distributed asset value” across tokenized real-world assets, and about $10 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries.

Those figures help explain why executives keep returning to RWAs as the next “big lane.”

It is a growth narrative with measurable traction, not just a slogan.

CLARITY Act Needed for ‘Spirit’ in the Market, He Says

Asked about the proposed CLARITY Act and U.S. crypto market structure efforts, Novogratz said he expects legislation to eventually pass.

He told CNBC he recently spoke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and said the industry needs a bill for multiple reasons, including restoring “spirit back in the crypto market.”

The post Mike Novogratz Says Crypto’s ‘Age of Speculation’ May Be Over — Real-World Assets Next appeared first on ccn.com.

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