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Trump's Tariff Policies Fluctuate, Bitcoin Faces Pressure and Volatility
On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were "illegal," putting over $175 billion in taxes at risk of refunds. Trump immediately retaliated, announcing a 10% "global tariff" increase under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the new tariffs expected to take effect "within about three days."
This policy fluctuation directly impacts the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin remains stable below the key $68,000 level, having fallen about 45% from its all-time high over the past few months. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and XRP also show sideways consolidation, with gains of only around 1%.
Core Transmission Mechanism: Inflation Expectations and Liquidity Tightening
The impact of tariff policies on virtual currencies mainly occurs through two channels:
First, reinforcing expectations of "higher for longer" interest rates. Analysts suggest that escalating tariffs could push inflation upward, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy. In this scenario, the U.S. dollar typically strengthens, risk assets come under pressure, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are susceptible to liquidity tightening.
Second, suppressing risk appetite. Since the tariffs were implemented in April 2025, these trade barriers have served as a "macro-economic anchor," suppressing global markets, including crypto assets. Although the Supreme Court ruling was temporarily offset by Trump's alternative plan, in the long term, the removal of trade barriers is objectively positive for risk assets.
Current Market Reaction: Cautious Observation
Despite the ruling, the crypto market has not shown a significant rebound. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, stated that macroeconomic conditions need to improve before the crypto market can begin to recover. K33 analysts believe Bitcoin may have already approached its bottom but could face a prolonged period of consolidation.
Looking ahead, if the tariff narrative further intensifies and drives the dollar higher, Bitcoin's rebound momentum may not be sustainable; if related rhetoric diminishes into political noise, the market will refocus on capital flows and key technical levels. Until macroeconomic uncertainties are resolved, cryptocurrencies will remain cautious.