Billions of dollars are backing the leading dark horse in commercial spaceflight. Why is capital rushing to invest in Jianyuan?

History has proven countless times: in the competition among great powers, among enterprises, in any field where “latecomer advantage” can be maximized, that is called a “dark horse.” In the commercial space sector, this dark horse is Arrow Yuan Technology. On February 12th, this privately-owned rocket company, only four years old, announced the completion of a B-round financing of over one billion yuan, making it one of the largest financing deals in the commercial space industry at the start of 2026. The subsequent question is, why are capital investors rushing to back Arrow Yuan?

Over the past five years, the real change in China’s commercial space industry is not the increase in the number of companies, but the emergence of a clear dividing line:

On one side is the still ongoing engineering validation stage—“Can it fly?” “Can it reach orbit?”; on the other side is a more brutal question: who can build a powerful, long-term operational space intelligence system with the least capital and in the shortest time?

SpaceX’s 1 million satellite mega-constellation plan and its integration with xAI already clearly indicate that human spaceflight has shifted from the era of space engineering to a new era of building space intelligent systems—an era of major infrastructure. The core competition in commercial space will soon shift from whether a rocket can reach orbit and be recovered, to who can do so at the lowest cost, most efficiently, and with rapid, large-scale deployment.

This means that China’s commercial space industry is transitioning from a “technological adventure era” into a “system competition era” that only a few can participate in.

Against this backdrop, Arrow Yuan Technology has begun to frequently appear in the eyes of investors, industry players, and policy researchers, gradually earning a label:

Potential number one dark horse in the commercial space field.

It’s worth noting that the earliest systematic backer of Arrow Yuan was not short-term speculative capital, but Tianwen Times, a professional investment institution based in Hangzhou with long-term deep involvement in commercial space and military-civil fusion sectors.

Tianwen Times is a rare domestic professional fund that has focused on commercial space and military-civil integration for over ten years. It emphasizes the intersection of “next-generation core technologies” and “major national strategic needs.” Known for its highly accurate trend judgment and project control, it has a unique influence and many followers in the industry. Its founder, Mr. Zhang Weijie, previously invested in several industry benchmarks, including China’s first commercial rocket company Xingji Glory, the fairing leader Isada Technology, the leading thermal insulation material company Hangju Technology, AI computing chip testing giant Langxun Technology, large-scale magnetic levitation flywheel Huachi Dynamics, and the aerospace servo motor leader Hangxing Transmission. To some extent, Tianwen Times’ early investments serve as an important validation of Arrow Yuan’s technological path and industry timing.

By analyzing Arrow Yuan’s underlying logic, we find that compared to the private rocket pioneers who paid a high “trial-and-error tax” over the past few years, this company, officially operational since March 2022, exhibits a unique “time arbitrage” advantage—while others spent real money learning lessons, Arrow Yuan directly builds systems on top of those lessons. Its development trajectory could very well become a model for “latecomers” to surpass early entrants in the commercial space IPO race.

1. From founding to rushing to go public in an “extremely short” time: a company seizing the policy window

In the capital path of tech companies, timing often matters more than technology.

While most peers are still experimenting with solid vs. liquid rockets, aluminum vs. carbon fiber, Arrow Yuan has been all-in on the “stainless steel + liquid oxygen methane + maritime recovery” route from day one. This naturally aligns with the “Guidelines for the Application of the Fifth Set of Standards for the Science and Technology Innovation Board (2025 Revision)” (the “No. 9 Guideline”) for “reusable medium-to-large rockets.” By May 2025, its “Yuan Xingzhe No. 1” prototype rocket completed China’s first full-scale stainless steel rocket splashdown and recovery at sea, with the entire rocket’s reusability value exceeding 90%.

More importantly, it has no sunk costs from changing technical routes. Early companies that first built solid rockets and then switched to liquid, or used aluminum and later transitioned to stainless steel, inevitably carry “legacy costs” on their financial statements. Arrow Yuan, however, avoids this. Its “pure-blood” technical nature means it doesn’t bear the review costs associated with “policy testing periods” that early applicants faced.

Adding the advantage of “green channel compatibility,” its listing pace is even more promising. The company has built China’s first “elevated steel structure + water-cooled flow” test stand, stainless steel rocket body production team, and a full-process assembly and testing system, fully aligning with the “hard tech自主可控” (independent controllability of core technologies) preference of green channel policies. If the “Qiantang” first flight succeeds by the end of 2026, the standard review process could shorten the time from application to approval by over 30%, making it possibly the fastest domestic private rocket company from establishment to listing.

2. Valuation elasticity “extremely high”: capital efficiency benefits from a low base

In the highly capital-intensive commercial space sector, valuation logic is often not “who was earliest,” but “who has the highest capital efficiency.”

A notable industry phenomenon is: among private rocket companies with orbital records, solid-fuel companies are generally valued around 15 billion yuan, liquid-fuel companies over 20 billion yuan. However, in the realm of large reusable liquid rockets achieving orbit, and securing commercial orders, no company has yet delivered a definitive answer. Arrow Yuan, having just completed its B-round, is valued relatively low compared to industry leaders like Landspace. While the absolute scale of pioneers like Landspace is clear, Arrow Yuan’s “black horse” attribute is more evident in its capital elasticity.

From a secondary market perspective, companies that demonstrate “high system value with low capital verification” tend to receive higher multiples than “asset-heavy pioneers.”

The real difference isn’t in technological generations, but in the more favorable capital return structure. In hard tech fields, survival is rarely about the “most aggressive tech,” but about “engineering teams that understand the laws of capital physics.”

Arrow Yuan’s founder, Wei Yi, has repeatedly said: “Arrow Yuan’s goal has always been clear—to make rockets ‘cheap to produce and reusable.’” Spending money only where it’s needed, avoiding waste, and being pragmatic to the core—this embodies “capital efficiency.”

3. Technical route “extremely straightforward”: one-time benchmark against Starship, with Eastern wisdom

A often overlooked fact is: in hard tech, many early-stage companies solve the “from 0 to 1” problem, but what truly determines industry structure is the “from 1 to 10” system efficiency.

In the long term, stainless steel + methane is almost the optimal solution for “high-frequency reusable rockets.” The reasons are simple: stainless steel is low-cost, high-temperature resistant, and easy to process; methane engines produce less coking and are more reusable, with significantly lower maintenance costs than kerosene; system engineering is more conducive to evolving toward “aeronautical operation.”

Arrow Yuan is China’s first rocket company to adopt the “stainless steel + liquid oxygen methane + maritime splashdown recovery” technical route, directly benchmarking SpaceX’s Starship as the next-generation optimal solution. Most Chinese rocket companies are trying to catch up with SpaceX’s previous generation, but Arrow Yuan has chosen from the start to avoid wasting a decade between two system generations.

This benchmarking is not blind imitation; its recovery strategy reflects the team’s clarity.

In terms of efficiency, “using chopsticks to pick up a rocket” is undoubtedly the ultimate plan, but Arrow Yuan has opted for a more pragmatic path: maritime splashdown recovery transitioning to offshore platform capture.

The logic behind this embodies Eastern wisdom: since the ultimate solution is extremely challenging, and a transitional phase is inevitable, it’s better to choose a “feasible, low-complexity” transitional plan.

Maritime splashdown does not require complex vertical recovery systems, imposes fewer structural demands on the rocket body, and can verify reusability through simple retrieval—essentially, replacing “system complexity” with “engineering simplification,” making it a practical choice at this stage.

On May 29, 2025, at 4:42:05 AM, Arrow Yuan’s Yuan Xingzhe No. 1 prototype rocket completed its first maritime recovery at Dongfang Aerospace Port, accurately splashing down into the designated sea area. After 18 hours, the rocket was successfully recovered, cleaned, and transported to the factory. In July, the rocket’s recovered engines, actuators, and electrical systems completed four combined hot tests. The successful repeated ignition tests mark Arrow Yuan’s achievement of a full process cycle: launch recovery → precise splashdown → retrieval and cleaning → factory inspection → reuse.

It’s clear that in the high-risk field of commercial space, this strategy often has a higher success probability than “pursuing the most dazzling technology,” embodying the unity of technological foresight and pragmatic implementation. From this perspective, Arrow Yuan’s early achievement in rocket reusability and even challenging the “first Chinese listed space company” is not impossible.

4. Market timing “extremely accurate”: orders come before product launch

In terms of market validation, Arrow Yuan has seized an exceptionally rare and ideal window in China’s commercial space history.

In 2023–2024, China’s two major national constellation projects—China StarNet (GW constellation) and Qianfan constellation—began construction successively. GW constellation plans to launch over 13,000 satellites between 2025 and 2035, meaning China will enter an unprecedented “mass satellite deployment cycle” over the next decade.

This situation is entirely different from early commercial rocket companies, which had to “build rockets first, then find customers.” Arrow Yuan faces a market demand that is already confirmed, waiting only for suitable launch capacity.

Driven by strong market demand, Arrow Yuan, even before completing product validation, has entered China StarNet’s whitelist and secured procurement orders, eliminating the need to “find customers” and saving significant market exploration costs.

Furthermore, the market is entering an explosive growth phase. If Arrow Yuan completes its first flight by the end of 2026, its commercial milestone will align perfectly with the peak of national constellation deployment, enabling seamless capacity scaling and potentially steep order growth.

This is not just “good luck,” but a result of strategic rhythm and industry cycle alignment.

Extreme scarcity: achieving customer diversification and forward-looking layout into space quantum computing

Compared to most rocket companies relying solely on constellation orders, Arrow Yuan’s customer base is unusually diversified: exploring new modes of rocket delivery for express parcels with Taobao, signing strategic cooperation agreements with quantum computing star enterprise Boson Quantum, and proactively planning for space quantum computing scenarios.

This “dual-drive” of “national team orders for survival, commercial orders for future” allows it to go further in building a commercial ecosystem.

Because it points to a key question: if future launch costs drop significantly, who will be the first to develop “new application scenarios” and thus capture the next industry dividend?

From this perspective, Arrow Yuan does not see itself merely as a “rocket manufacturer,” but more as an early builder of China’s next-generation space infrastructure system.

Conclusion: A typical example of “latecomer advantage”

Overall, Arrow Yuan’s growth story is a textbook case of “latecomer advantage” theory:

• Seizing the policy window from uncertain to certain;
• Avoiding early technical route trial-and-error costs;
• Choosing the next-generation system-level optimal solution;
• Just entering the market explosion phase.

From a longer historical perspective, Arrow Yuan is not just racing against other companies; it is “happening to be in an extremely rare optimal initial condition in history”:

• It is nearly the only Chinese commercial space company where “technology path verified, policy rules clear, market demand exploded” all align simultaneously.

This means it no longer needs to pay tuition for “whether the direction is correct,” no longer needs to educate the market on “whether it exists,” and no longer needs to repeatedly test “policy support.” The only remaining question is:

In this unprecedented window of certainty, can its system capabilities reach the limit?

If China’s commercial space industry truly produces a company with long-term global influence, then from a probability standpoint, Arrow Yuan is already positioned closest to that answer.