Bitcoin Halving: When Will the Cyclical Event Occur and Its Market Impact

Bitcoin halving is one of the most anticipated events in the cryptocurrency market. This mechanism, occurring approximately once every four years, profoundly influences the decisions of millions of investors and miners. In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As we look ahead, understanding Bitcoin’s halving cycle—especially when the next halving will occur—is crucial for anyone involved in the crypto market.

Understanding the Bitcoin Halving Mechanism

What is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed event that happens roughly every four years, or after about 210,000 blocks are mined (assuming an average of one block every 10 minutes). This process cuts the block reward miners receive in half, hence the name “halving.”

This mechanism was set by Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, in the original code to control the rate at which new bitcoins enter circulation. By gradually decreasing mining rewards, halving achieves two key objectives: alleviating Bitcoin’s inflation pressure and mimicking the scarcity features of precious metals like gold. Since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, the block reward has decreased from an initial 50 BTC to the current 3.125 BTC.

Why is Halving So Important?

Bitcoin’s design stems from the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. When traditional currencies like the US dollar faced devaluation risks, Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin’s total supply is permanently capped at 21 million—this is a core feature of Bitcoin’s economic model.

Halving directly controls the amount of new bitcoins entering the market by reducing miners’ rewards, artificially creating scarcity. This mechanism ensures Bitcoin remains deflationary until all 21 million coins are mined. Currently, about 19.46 million bitcoins are in circulation (as of early 2026), leaving roughly 31 halving events remaining. With a four-year cycle, the last bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.

Historical Overview of Bitcoin Halving

The Past Three Halvings

2024 Halving Recap

The April 2024 Bitcoin halving proceeded smoothly as scheduled, marking the fourth major milestone in Bitcoin’s history. After this halving, the mining reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further emphasizing Bitcoin’s scarcity.

Impact of Halving on Market Participants

Challenges and Opportunities for Miners

Halving directly affects miners’ profit models. When the reward halves, the immediate BTC income per block drops, putting pressure on small and less efficient mining operations. Historically, each halving has led some miners to exit the market, gradually shifting the mining ecosystem toward larger pools.

However, mining profitability ultimately depends on two key factors: Bitcoin’s price and mining difficulty. When Bitcoin’s price rises, even with reduced rewards, profits can be maintained. Similarly, if high-cost miners exit, difficulty may decrease, increasing the relative earnings of remaining miners. Past data shows that difficulty has not significantly dropped after previous halvings, indicating most miners continue operations, hopeful for future price increases.

Miners can also adapt by adopting more efficient hardware, optimizing energy costs, or using hedging strategies like futures to navigate the post-halving environment.

Investment Opportunities for Investors

Compared to miners’ challenges, investors tend to be optimistic about halving events. Historical cycles show predictable patterns in Bitcoin’s price:

Accumulation Phase: 13–22 months before halving, Bitcoin typically consolidates or trends slightly upward, with investors gradually accumulating positions. Market sentiment during this phase is cautious.

Bull Market: 10–15 months after halving, Bitcoin often enters a strong upward cycle, usually experiencing only one major correction before reaching new highs.

Bear Market: Each bull run ends with a bear market, with correction durations decreasing from over 600 days (after the first halving) to about a year (after the last two).

Based on this pattern, as of early 2026, Bitcoin is in the correction phase following the 2024 halving. Analysts generally expect the market to bottom out in the coming months and then enter a new rally, potentially extending into 2028 before the next halving.

Strategies to Reduce Trading Costs

Beyond buying and holding Bitcoin, investors can employ various strategies to profit during halving cycles:

Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Instead of trying to time the market precisely, DCA involves investing fixed amounts at regular intervals, reducing average costs and smoothing out volatility—ideal for long-term investors.

Spot Trading

Active traders can leverage technical and fundamental analysis to buy and sell on spot markets, taking advantage of volatility during halving periods. Bitcoin’s high liquidity supports multiple trading pairs, offering ample opportunities.

Derivatives Trading

Risk-tolerant traders can use futures to go long or short Bitcoin, capitalizing on price swings during halving. This approach requires strict risk management and clear stop-loss and take-profit levels.

Passive Income Opportunities

Holders can generate passive income through lending or staking, earning interest on idle Bitcoin. Many platforms offer a range of products from low-risk savings to structured investments.

Arbitrage

Price discrepancies across exchanges and trading pairs can be exploited through arbitrage, buying low on one platform and selling high on another.

Broader Impact of Halving on the Crypto Market

Correlation with Ethereum and Other Tokens

As the largest and most influential crypto asset, Bitcoin’s price movements significantly impact the entire market. Many altcoins, especially Ethereum (ETH), show high correlation with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin experiences sharp moves during halving events, these tend to cascade into the broader crypto space.

Research by market analyst Michael van de Poppe indicates that altcoins tend to bottom out about 8–10 months before Bitcoin halving, often during periods of low confidence. Historical data shows ETH/USD and ETH/BTC pairs hit cycle lows around October 2015 and September 2019—about 252 days before the 2016 and 2020 halvings. Applying this pattern, the 2024 halving suggests related pairs may bottom between August and September 2023.

Institutional Capital Inflows

The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs marks a new phase for institutional investment. SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could significantly lower barriers for institutional investors, bringing in substantial new capital. This factor may amplify the upward momentum triggered by halving.

Price Predictions and Market Outlook

Historical Price Cycles

Many models attempt to forecast Bitcoin’s post-halving price. The most famous is the Stock-to-Flow model, which predicted a price of around $460,000 by May 2025. However, the growth percentages in previous bull cycles have been decreasing, suggesting future gains may be less than 500%.

In addition, increased institutional participation and the potential launch of spot ETFs could alter these patterns, injecting unprecedented capital into the market.

Industry Experts’ Views

Several industry leaders and investment firms are optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects:

• Pantera Capital projects Bitcoin reaching about $150,000 during the next four-year halving cycle.
• “Bottom Indicator” suggests Bitcoin could break $100,000 by 2026.
• Jesse Myers (Founder of Bitcoin Onramp) believes Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 but may wait until the next halving.
• Robert Kiyosaki (author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad”) agrees with the $100,000+ forecast post-halving.
• Adam Back (CEO of Blockstream, cited in Bitcoin whitepaper) predicts Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 before the next halving.
• Standard Chartered has revised its year-end 2024 Bitcoin price target to $120,000.
• Cathy Wood (CEO of ARK Invest) is confident Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030.

Frequently Asked Questions About Halving

Can the timing of halving be predicted?

Yes. Bitcoin halving is fully predictable because it’s based on a fixed block height schedule. Every 210,000 blocks mined automatically triggers a halving. With an average of one block every 10 minutes, this occurs roughly every four years.

When was the last halving?

The last halving occurred in April 2024, marking Bitcoin’s fourth halving event. After this, the block reward decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

When is the next halving?

Based on current progress, the next (fifth) halving is expected around 2028, reducing the reward to 1.5625 BTC. This predictable cycle allows investors and miners to plan their long-term strategies accordingly.

Does halving directly affect transaction speed or costs?

Halving itself does not directly change transaction speed or fees. However, it is indirectly related to network congestion and mining difficulty—if miners reduce activity due to lower rewards, difficulty may adjust downward, potentially impacting transaction confirmation times.

What happens after all 21 million bitcoins are mined?

Once all bitcoins are mined, no new coins will be created. Miners’ revenue will then come solely from transaction fees. This shift will make transaction fees a critical incentive for maintaining network security.

Do other cryptocurrencies have halving mechanisms?

Yes. Many other cryptocurrencies, such as Litecoin, also implement halving or supply reduction mechanisms to mimic Bitcoin’s scarcity model.

Is halving good or bad for the market?

It depends on the perspective. For miners, halving may cause short-term income pressure. However, if Bitcoin’s price rises afterward, total revenue could recover or even increase. For holders and traders, halving is generally seen as positive, as it increases the likelihood of price appreciation.

Summary

когда будет халвинг (when will halving happen) is key to understanding Bitcoin’s long-term value. Although the April 2024 halving has passed, it provides valuable data for predicting the 2028 event and beyond. Based on historical cycles and current data, investors should prepare for the next halving cycle. Whether through dollar-cost averaging, spot trading, or other strategies, understanding halving cycles is essential for success in the crypto market.