What is the crypto bull run of Bitcoin: From halvings to institutional investing

Bullish growth in the cryptocurrency market represents a period of sustained and rapid increase in value driven by various factors—from technological innovations to macroeconomic shifts. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization since its inception in 2009, has experienced numerous such cycles, each leaving its own mark on the development of digital assets. Understanding the nature of these bullish surges and their driving forces helps investors navigate upcoming waves of growth.

Defining Bitcoin Bullish Growth and Its Characteristics

Bitcoin bullish growth is not just a short-term price fluctuation but a full market cycle characterized by a steady upward momentum, high trading volumes, and positive market sentiment. Unlike traditional financial markets, Bitcoin bull cycles exhibit extreme volatility and potential for exponential growth.

Key signs of an active bullish period include:

• Rising trading volumes — sessions with increased activity indicating investor interest
• Social media activity — surges in mentions and discussions of Bitcoin on platforms
• Growth in wallet activity — increasing number of active addresses on the network
• Technical momentum — breaking through key resistance levels and moving averages

Historically, Bitcoin halving events, occurring approximately every four years and reducing mining rewards, serve as powerful catalysts for bull cycles. After each halving, significant rallies have followed: 5200% increase after 2012, 315% after 2016, and 230% after 2020. These events create supply shortages, which become a primary driver of market rallies.

Major Bullish Waves in History: From 2013 to Today

2013: The First Widespread Recognition of Bitcoin’s Value

The 2013 bull cycle marked a turning point in Bitcoin’s history. The cryptocurrency rose from about $145 in May to nearly $1200 by December—an impressive 730% increase. This first major surge drew attention not only from tech enthusiasts but also from the mainstream.

Driving factors:

• Sharp increase in media coverage, attracting broader public interest
• Cyprus banking crisis of 2013, convincing some investors that Bitcoin could serve as a hedge against financial instability

Major challenges:

• Mt. Gox collapse in 2013-2014, which handled around 70% of Bitcoin transactions, undermined trust and triggered a prolonged bear market
• Price fell below $300 in 2014 (more than 75% off the peak)

Despite the upheaval, this cycle demonstrated Bitcoin’s resilience and laid the groundwork for future development.

2017: Breakthrough into Mainstream Consciousness

The 2017 bull run was the most memorable in terms of retail investor involvement. Bitcoin grew from $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 in December—an astonishing 1900% rally. Daily trading volume increased from less than $200 million at the start of the year to over $15 billion by year-end.

Growth catalysts:

• The ICO boom, where new projects raised funds via token issuance, attracting millions of new participants
• Emergence of user-friendly, accessible trading platforms that simplified buying Bitcoin for retail investors
• Intense media coverage, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of interest and price growth

Challenges and corrections:

• Stricter regulation—SEC and regulators worldwide expressed concerns over manipulation and investor protection
• China’s ban on ICOs and domestic crypto exchanges led to significant sell-offs
• Deep correction in 2018, with prices dropping to around $3,200 (-84% from the peak)

This cycle solidified Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream asset but also highlighted the need for mature market infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.

2020-2021: Institutional Recognition Era

The bull run of 2020-2021 saw Bitcoin rise from around $8,000 in January 2020 to over $64,000 in April 2021—an increase of 700%. This cycle marked a fundamental shift in perception of Bitcoin.

Main growth drivers:

• Institutional investment — companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square allocated significant portions of their reserves to Bitcoin, signaling a paradigm shift
• Futures and new ETFs — the introduction of regulated financial instruments opened doors for conservative investors
• Narrative of “digital gold” — amid pandemic and massive monetary stimulus, Bitcoin was positioned as an inflation hedge
• Changing perception — this narrative attracted long-term investors rather than just speculators

Complicating factors:

• Growing concerns over Bitcoin’s environmental impact
• Increased regulatory scrutiny, tempering institutional enthusiasm
• July 2021 correction from $64,000 to $30,000—a 53% drop

This period demonstrated Bitcoin’s evolution from a speculative asset to a portfolio instrument.

Bullish Cycle of 2024-2025: Establishing in Traditional Finance

The current cycle of 2024-2025 has introduced a new paradigm with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Since their approval in January 2024, total capital inflows exceeded $28 billion—an unprecedented volume surpassing historic gold ETF inflows.

Bitcoin rose from $40,000 at the start of 2024 to $93,000 in November—an increase of 132%. Major financial players, including BlackRock, accumulated over 467,000 BTC through their IBIT ETF, and the total BTC held across all Bitcoin ETFs exceeds 1 million coins.

Key catalysts of this cycle:

• SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024, providing a regulated, accessible channel for traditional investors
• The fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024, reducing new coin issuance
• Pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric and expectations of favorable digital asset policies
• Continued institutional accumulation as a strategic reserve

Context for 2026: Amid a correction where BTC dropped to $66,870 in February 2026 (28% below November 2024 peak), it’s important to remember that such fluctuations are inherent to the cycle. History shows each bull phase is followed by significant retracements, often preceding new rallies or transitioning into bear markets.

How to Recognize the Beginning of a Bitcoin Bull Run

To successfully identify an upcoming bull period, investors should monitor a combination of technical indicators, network data, and macroeconomic factors.

Technical signals:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index) — values above 70 typically indicate strong buying momentum
• Moving averages — price crossing above 50- and 200-day moving averages often signals an uptrend start
• Trading volumes — increasing absolute volumes alongside rising prices confirm bullish momentum

On-chain data:

• Decreasing Bitcoin reserves on exchanges suggest accumulation by long-term holders
• Inflows of stablecoins onto exchanges provide liquidity for buying
• Growth in active addresses and transaction activity signals heightened interest

Macroeconomic and regulatory factors:

• Central bank decisions on interest rates
• Approval of new regulatory tools (ETFs, futures)
• Geopolitical events influencing risk perception
• Approaching halving dates

The Role of Institutional Products in Cycle Formation

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 significantly transformed investment dynamics. For traditional financial institutions, ETFs offer a familiar investment mechanism without the need for direct custody or complex regulation.

This development created a cascade effect:

1. Banks and pension funds gained a way to invest in Bitcoin via existing portfolio management structures
2. The inflow of over $28 billion in less than a year surpassed previous adoption rates
3. Reduced available supply on secondary markets due to accumulation in ETFs
4. Additional upward pressure on prices through supply constraints

Future Horizons: Factors Shaping the Next Cycles

Potential Role of Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve

Legislative initiatives, including Senator Cynthia Lummis’s proposed BITCOIN Act of 2024, envisage the US potentially acquiring up to 1 million BTC over five years. Such policies could dramatically alter demand at the government level.

Precedents are already emerging: Bhutan’s state investment company Druk Holding & Investments has accumulated over 13,000 BTC, and El Salvador, which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, continues to invest in crypto. Expanded official recognition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset could establish a baseline demand and reinforce its status as “digital gold.”

Technological Breakthroughs: OP_CAT and Expanded Functionality

Restoring the OP_CAT code, initially removed for security reasons, could unlock new capabilities for Bitcoin. This upgrade might enable:

• Rollups and Layer-2 solutions
• Processing thousands of transactions per second
• Deployment of DeFi applications on Bitcoin

Such expanded functionality would move Bitcoin beyond a mere store of value, positioning it as a competitor to Ethereum in the decentralized finance segment.

Continued Halvings and Supply Scarcity

Bitcoin’s fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins remains a structural factor of its scarcity. Halvings, occurring every four years, will continue to reduce Bitcoin’s inflation rate, and as the final stages of mining approach, scarcity could become even more pronounced.

How to Prepare for the Next Bull Run

Education on Fundamentals and Cycle History

Deep understanding of Bitcoin’s technology, economic models, and historical cycles provides a foundation for informed investment decisions. Study each previous cycle: what triggered it, how it developed, and its consequences.

Developing an Investment Strategy

Before entering the market, investors should:

• Define their investment horizon and risk tolerance
• Set clear financial goals
• Create a plan for managing positions under different price scenarios
• Diversify their portfolio across Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, and traditional assets to reduce concentrated risk

Choosing Reliable Platforms and Ensuring Security

• Select platforms with proven security records, strong 2FA, and cold storage options
• Use hardware wallets for long-term storage, kept offline
• Enable all available security features, including withdrawal whitelists

Monitoring the Market and Maintaining Discipline

• Follow reputable news sources for regulatory and macroeconomic updates
• Track technical indicators and on-chain data
• Practice emotional discipline, avoiding impulsive decisions amid volatility
• Use stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses

Tax Planning and Recordkeeping

• Understand your jurisdiction’s tax laws regarding crypto transactions
• Keep detailed records of all trades, including dates, amounts, and prices, to simplify tax reporting

Community Engagement and Education

• Join active crypto communities for knowledge sharing and diverse perspectives
• Participate in webinars and conferences to deepen market understanding

Conclusion: Understanding Cycles as a Path to Success

Bitcoin’s history demonstrates clear cyclical patterns driven by technical events (halvings), institutional recognition, and macroeconomic conditions. From the first major surge in 2013 through mass adoption in 2017 and institutional acceptance in 2020-2021, to the current regulated investment paradigm via ETFs—each cycle built upon the foundation of the previous one.

The correction in 2026, with prices falling from the November 2024 peak of $93,000 to $66,870, should not be seen as the end of Bitcoin’s prospects. Historically, such retracements have been part of normal cycles, often preceding new rallies or transitioning into bear markets. Success depends on understanding long-term trends, maintaining disciplined investing, and being prepared for volatility.

Future Bitcoin bull runs will likely be shaped by:

• Technological upgrades—such as OP_CAT and Layer-2 solutions
• Regulatory recognition—including potential official adoption as a strategic reserve
• Halvings—next scheduled for 2028
• Macroeconomic factors—inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical developments

Whether you are a long-term holder or an active trader, success in the Bitcoin market requires knowledge, discipline, and adaptability. The next bull cycle will undoubtedly bring unprecedented opportunities as well as significant challenges. Stay informed, prepared, and cautious in your actions.