CRCL Stock Gets Morgan Stanley's Equal-Weight Nod: Here's What Analysts and Funds Think

Morgan Stanley has officially initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group (CRCL), assigning an Equal-Weight recommendation to the cryptocurrency infrastructure company. This move signals the investment bank’s recognition of CRCL as a player worth monitoring, though not necessarily a strong buy at current valuations. The announcement came on February 2, 2026, adding yet another major institution’s official view on this expanding sector.

Morgan Stanley’s Take: Moderate Growth Expectations for CRCL

The analyst price target for CRCL paints an intriguing picture. As of mid-January 2026, the average one-year price target stands at $141.87 per share, with projections ranging from a conservative $60.60 to an ambitious $294.00. That average target represents a 140.65% upside from CRCL’s most recent closing price of $58.95. On paper, this suggests significant growth potential despite the cautious Equal-Weight rating. The disconnect between the bullish price targets and the moderate rating highlights the uncertainty surrounding near-term catalysts. Analysts are projecting a non-GAAP EPS of 1.02 for the year, providing a foundation for valuation discussions.

The Bull Case Behind the Numbers: Why This Matters for CRCL Investors

What do these numbers really mean? The 140% upside implies investors see substantial room for CRCL to run if execution meets expectations. The put/call ratio of 0.65 adds credence to this bullish sentiment—a reading below 1.0 typically indicates options traders are positioning for upward movement rather than downside protection. This technical signal aligns with the optimistic price targets, even as Morgan Stanley holds back from a full-throated buy recommendation.

Institutional Money Moves: CRCL Attracts Growing Fund Interest

The fund sentiment surrounding CRCL has shifted noticeably positive. There are now 493 funds or institutions reporting positions in the company, representing a 30.42% quarter-over-quarter jump of 115 new owners. This surge in institutional interest is difficult to ignore. The average portfolio weight dedicated to CRCL across all funds has increased to 0.89%, up 11.85% from the previous quarter. Total shares held by institutions climbed 16.52% in the last three months, reaching 97.214 million shares. This consistent pattern of fund accumulation—more institutions entering positions and existing holders expanding their stakes—suggests institutional investors view CRCL as increasingly attractive.

Inside Major Investors’ CRCL Positions: Who’s Buying, Who’s Selling

The moves by CRCL’s largest shareholders tell a more nuanced story. General Catalyst Group Management, holding 8.78% of the company (19.001 million shares), actually trimmed its position by 5.89% compared to the prior quarter. The firm reduced its portfolio allocation in CRCL by 2.33%, a modest pullback that might reflect profit-taking or rebalancing rather than fundamental concerns.

IDG China Capital Fund III also cut its CRCL holdings, going from 11.676 million shares to 11.027 million shares—a 5.89% reduction that represents a 3.17% decrease in portfolio allocation. Similarly, Marshall Wace Llp pared back its CRCL stake significantly, trimming 5.89% of its position and reducing portfolio allocation by 37.82%, the steepest cut among major holders.

Not all heavyweight investors are retreating, however. Susquehanna International Group notably expanded its CRCL holdings dramatically, jumping from 690,000 shares to 3.148 million shares—a striking 78.08% increase. This aggressive accumulation translated to a 174.48% boost in their portfolio allocation to CRCL. ARK Investment Management, meanwhile, grew its position modestly from 2.924 million to 2.967 million shares (up 1.43%) but paradoxically decreased its portfolio allocation by 39.76%, likely due to shifts in ARK’s overall fund weightings.

What the Mixed Signals Say About CRCL’s Future

The institutional activity paints a picture of cautious optimism mixed with tactical positioning. While some flagship funds are rebalancing away from CRCL, the overall trend shows more institutional capital flowing in than out, with 493 funds now tracking the company and average positions expanding. This backdrop—combined with analyst price targets suggesting 140% upside and options traders positioning bullishly—creates a case for watching CRCL closely. Morgan Stanley’s Equal-Weight rating may feel like a lukewarm endorsement, but it represents the bank’s official acknowledgment that CRCL deserves serious consideration in the evolving crypto infrastructure landscape.