The $20B Capex Race: How Tech Giants Are Investing to Shape the AI Future

Elon Musk has long positioned Tesla as far more than an automaker. As the company confronts fierce competition from Chinese EV makers and slower-than-expected adoption rates, Tesla is pivoting toward artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous technology—areas Musk believes will define its next era of growth. This strategic shift is reflected in Tesla’s capital spending plans. The company expects capex to exceed $20 billion in 2026, more than doubling from approximately $8.5 billion in 2025 and significantly surpassing the prior high of $11.3 billion recorded in 2024. This aggressive capex expansion signals Tesla’s commitment to building the technological foundation needed for autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, and advanced robotics.

Tesla’s Capex Overhaul: Building Beyond the Factory Gates

Tesla’s $20 billion capex plan targets six major new facilities, including factories dedicated to refining operations, LFP battery production, CyberCab manufacturing, Semi truck production, a next-generation megafactory, and Optimus robot assembly. However, capex isn’t solely about bricks and mortar. A substantial portion will fund AI compute infrastructure—the computational backbone required to scale full self-driving capabilities, robotaxi deployment, and robotics operations. The company is also allocating resources to expand existing factory capacity and build supporting infrastructure for operational efficiency. With approximately $44 billion in cash reserves, Tesla possesses the financial flexibility to execute this ambitious capex agenda. The capital expenditure strategy underscores Tesla’s evolution from a traditional automaker into a technology and AI-driven enterprise, positioning the company for long-term competitive advantage in autonomous mobility and robotics.

The Capex Surge Across Tech: Meta and Nebius Follow the Trend

Tesla’s aggressive capex trajectory isn’t happening in isolation. Across the technology sector, major players are ramping up capital spending as AI emerges as the critical differentiator. Meta Platforms is significantly increasing capex to support AI infrastructure expansion. The social media giant has guided for capex between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026—a dramatic increase from $72.2 billion in 2025 and more than triple its 2024 spending levels. Meta’s capex focus centers on building out data centers, securing advanced compute capacity, and funding its newly established Meta Superintelligence Labs.

Similarly, Nebius—an emerging player in AI infrastructure services—has announced an ambitious capex expansion. Originally guiding for $2 billion in capital spending, Nebius has revised its capex plan upward to $5 billion for 2025. These funds will secure critical resources including power capacity, land acquisition, physical sites, and specialized hardware, enabling rapid scaling of data center deployment and large-scale GPU infrastructure rollout. The capex shift reflects a strategic recognition that whoever controls AI infrastructure will shape the industry’s competitive landscape.

Investment Implications and Market Perspective

Tesla stock has gained 12% over the past 12 months, underperforming its broader industry peers. From a valuation lens, Tesla trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.38, exceeding both the industry average and its own five-year historical average. The stock carries a Value Score of F, signaling premium valuation levels. Recent analyst revisions on Tesla’s earnings guidance have been mixed over the past 90 days, reflecting uncertainty around execution timelines for the announced capex initiatives. Tesla currently holds a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), suggesting limited upside potential from current levels based on conventional valuation metrics.

The broader capex wave underway across Meta, Nebius, and Tesla reveals a fundamental shift in how technology companies allocate capital. Rather than optimizing existing operations, these firms are placing massive bets on next-generation capabilities. For investors, the key question becomes whether these capex investments will generate returns sufficient to justify the extraordinary spending commitments being announced for 2026 and beyond.