① US December Retail Sales MoM ("Horrible Data")

- Key Significance: Directly reflects the vitality of consumer spending at the end of the year in the US and is a key indicator of economic resilience.

- Market Expectation: Expecting 0.4%, down from the previous 0.6%, indicating market anticipation of a cooling in consumption.

- Impact Logic:

- Data Better Than Expected: Reinforces expectations of a soft landing for the economy, may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, boost the US dollar, and suppress risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and gold.

- Data Worse Than Expected: Heightens concerns about economic slowdown, strengthens expectations of rate cuts, benefits risk assets, and could lead to a rebound in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

② US Q4 Labor Cost Index (Quarterly)

- Key Significance: Measures wage and benefit growth, a core indicator for the Federal Reserve to assess inflation stickiness.

- Market Expectation: Expecting 0.80%, unchanged from the previous reading.

- Impact Logic:

- Data Above Expectations: Indicates ongoing wage inflation pressure, reinforces the Fed’s "hawkish" stance, and is negative for stocks and cryptocurrencies.

- Data Below Expectations: Eases inflation concerns, provides room for the Fed to cut rates, and benefits risk assets.

③ US December Import Price Index MoM

- Key Significance: Reflects imported inflationary pressures and is a leading indicator of PCE inflation.

- Market Expectation: Expecting 0.1%.

- Impact Logic:

- Data Above Expectations: Imported inflation pressures rebound, delay the pace of rate cuts, and are negative for risk assets.

- Data Below Expectations: Inflation cools down, reinforces rate cut expectations, and benefits the stock market...