XRP Price Prediction 2026: Under current market sentiment, when will it break through the key resistance?

As of February 2, 2026, according to Gate market data, the current price of Ripple (XRP) is $1.59. Despite recent volatility in the overall cryptocurrency market, XRP remains under pressure below the key psychological threshold of $1.6, having declined -4.49% in the past 24 hours, reflecting widespread investor uncertainty. This article will analyze XRP’s price based on the latest on-chain data, technical indicators, and market sentiment, and explore future price forecasts.

Current Market Conditions and Price Analysis

According to the latest market data provided by Gate, the core market indicators for XRP are as follows:

• Current Price: $1.59
• 24-Hour Trading Volume: $169.73M
• Market Cap: $93.28B, accounting for 5.80% of the total global cryptocurrency market cap
• 24-Hour Price Range: $1.53 - $1.67

From short-term price trends, XRP has failed to hold above $1.67 (24-hour high) and has shifted to test support around $1.53. The current price has significantly retraced from the highs at the beginning of January 2026, aligning with the macro uncertainties faced by the entire crypto market.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the $1.6 level has shifted from a regular integer threshold to an important resistance zone. A volume breakout above this level could open space for testing higher resistance levels (such as $1.74). However, the current chart structure indicates insufficient bullish momentum. Key moving averages (such as the 50-day and 200-day EMA) are currently above the current price, creating layered resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other momentum indicators are currently in neutral to weak territory, not showing strong oversold or buy signals, suggesting the market may continue to consolidate or slightly decline to find stable support.

On-Chain Data and Market Sentiment Insights

One of the core factors pressuring XRP’s price is weak on-chain activity and shifts in investor confidence.

• Decline in Active Addresses: Recently, the number of daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has decreased from its early January high, indicating a short-term weakening in network usage and trading activity, which undermines the fundamental drivers for price increases.
• Significant Shrinkage in Profitable Supply: A key data point is that the proportion of XRP circulating supply in profit has sharply decreased from its high levels months ago. This suggests many investors are at breakeven or in loss, increasing selling pressure and reducing new buying interest.
• Diminished Derivatives Market Interest: According to derivatives market data, the total open interest in XRP contracts has recently declined from high levels. A decrease in open interest typically indicates reduced speculative interest and capital withdrawal, which is unfavorable for short-term bullish rebounds.

XRP Future Price Forecast: Data and Market Outlook

In an environment filled with investor uncertainty, predicting XRP’s price requires a comprehensive analysis of technical, fundamental, and macro factors. Below is a long-term outlook framework based on general market analysis and historical data:

Short-Term Catalysts and Risks

• Potential Catalysts: Any clear positive developments regarding Ripple’s legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a surge in adoption of major ecosystem applications on XRP Ledger (such as tokenized assets, DeFi projects), or a macro-driven bullish market trend could be key drivers pushing XRP above current ranges.
• Major Risks: Ongoing regulatory uncertainties, a decline in overall market risk appetite, and the breach of critical support levels (such as $1.53 or even $1.25) could lead to further declines and prolong consolidation.

Mid- to Long-Term Outlook

Mid- to long-term price forecasts depend heavily on the actual development and adoption of the XRP ecosystem. If RippleNet continues expanding in cross-border payments and XRPL successfully evolves into a significant multi-asset settlement layer and DeFi hub, its fundamental value will be strongly supported. Based on the forecast framework above, in optimistic scenarios, XRP could challenge the $2.37 to $2.87 range during the 2030-2031 cycle. However, this requires time, technological implementation, and a favorable regulatory environment.

Conclusion

Overall, XRP is currently at a critical crossroads. Amid macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties, its price remains below $1.6. Short-term technical analysis shows market sentiment leaning cautious, with on-chain activity and derivatives data not indicating a strong bullish reversal.

For investors monitoring XRP’s future price movements, it is crucial to watch the support around $1.53 and whether the price can effectively break through the resistance zone of $1.67 - $1.74 with increased volume. While long-term forecasts depict a potential upward trajectory, realizing this depends on substantial ecosystem growth and a market-wide shift toward optimism.