Hedera at Historic Lows: Why Technical Signals Suggest a Bottom May Be Near

HBAR is currently trading at $0.10, reflecting a staggering decline from its previous peaks. While many market participants have moved on from this Layer 1 network, recent technical and structural indicators suggest this pessimism may be premature. A confluence of oversold conditions, institutional positioning, and network fundamentals paint a different picture—one that resembles more of a bottom than an ongoing collapse. Hedera’s quiet foundation and undervalued position in the market may represent one of the more overlooked opportunities heading into 2026.

The Rare RSI Signal Flashing Red for HBAR Buyers

One of the most compelling technical observations comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an oscillator that measures momentum. HBAR’s RSI recently dropped to approximately 10–11, an extreme reading that signals deep oversold conditions. What makes this notable is rarity: this level has materialized only three times throughout Hedera’s trading history.

The first occurrence took place during the network’s launch phase in 2019, when price discovery was still establishing itself. The second arrived during the 2022 FTX crisis, a period of broader market capitulation. The third instance unfolded in late 2024, immediately preceding a dramatic rally: HBAR surged from roughly $0.04 to over $0.40—a move exceeding 10x in just a few months.

Each historical instance of such extreme readings has marked a transition point rather than a continuation of decline. Crypto markets often reverse most sharply when sentiment reaches maximum pessimism, and technical extremes tend to be mean-reverting. The current RSI reading suggests HBAR may be positioned similarly: at a point where further downside risk is limited relative to potential recovery.

Valuation Disconnect: When Hedera’s Price Doesn’t Match Its Network

Beyond the technical charts, valuation metrics reveal a significant gap. At $0.10, HBAR trades at a level that appears disconnected from comparable Layer 1 infrastructure. Hedera boasts institutional-grade architecture designed specifically for enterprise adoption—a differentiation that many competing networks lack.

To contextualize this disconnect, consider a comparison: if HBAR were valued at a similar market capitalization to Solana during its recent peaks, the price would approach $1.90 per token. That scenario would represent approximately a 15x move from current levels. While such comparisons do not guarantee outcomes, they illustrate just how compressed Hedera’s valuation has become relative to its infrastructure maturity and real-world usage.

Market observers have suggested that $1 to $2 per HBAR represents a realistic range if broader market conditions enter an expansion phase. Compared to other established networks, Hedera’s current price arguably reflects capitulation pricing rather than fundamental deterioration.

Network Strength Often Ignored by the Market

Hedera’s underlying infrastructure continues to strengthen, even as its price has languished. The network has now processed more than 70 billion transactions on its mainnet, placing it in the same operational category as Solana and XRP Ledger in terms of throughput and practical utility.

Equally important is the governance structure backing the network. Hedera’s Governing Council includes major global enterprises such as Google, IBM, LG, Boeing, and T-Mobile. These are not honorary positions; these corporations actively participate in network governance decisions and protocol development. This enterprise-grade backing differentiates Hedera from many competing Layer 1s that rely on more decentralized but less institutionally focused models.

The divergence between strong network metrics and weak price performance is telling. Typically, significant disconnects between fundamentals and price do not persist indefinitely. When a network demonstrates genuine utility, security, and institutional support, market price eventually tends to acknowledge this reality.

Institutional Capital Quietly Positioning Ahead of the Cycle

Signs of institutional interest in HBAR have begun emerging, though they remain largely beneath mainstream notice. The recently introduced Canary HBAR ETF has reportedly accumulated approximately 500 million HBAR, representing roughly 1% of total supply. While this may seem incremental, it signals that professional capital is analyzing the opportunity.

Beyond that single fund, Grayscale and other established digital asset managers are reportedly preparing cryptocurrency baskets and evaluating potential spot products that could include Hedera. These institutional moves typically act as leading indicators: when large fund managers begin positioning, retail interest and liquidity often follow.

Institutional involvement in an oversold asset often precedes significant price action. The current phase—where the price is beaten down, technical signals flash extreme, and institutions are quietly building—frequently resembles the conditions that precede multi-year recoveries rather than continued deterioration.

The Bottom May Be Closer Than Many Realize

Taking a step back, Hedera presents an unusual setup: extreme technical oversold signals, compressed valuation relative to peers, strong network fundamentals, and emerging institutional interest. These elements rarely align at the same moment in an asset’s cycle.

While HBAR could certainly experience further short-term volatility or even dips, the structural backdrop resembles a late-cycle bottom more than an early-stage collapse. Price action alone often obscures the full picture. When combined with genuine network metrics, enterprise governance, and technical extremes, the risk-reward proposition for Hedera shifts significantly.

For long-term market participants, the current environment presents the type of conditions where patience and conviction are tested. Selling near historic lows while extreme technical signals flash, institutions accumulate, and fundamentals remain intact, is not typically how traders capture major upside moves in subsequent cycles. Hedera may be one of the more strategically undervalued positions entering 2026.