Market Roulette Odds Reassessment: Is the BTC Rebound a Trap or a True Reversal?

Currently, BTC is quoted at $82,819.7, with a 24-hour decline of 2.09%. The overall market is caught in a “rebound—drop” tug-of-war. From the perspective of roulette odds, the market is re-pricing recent buying opportunities and risk-reward ratios. In the short term, it is likely to experience a pattern of initial rebound and false signals, followed by further testing of support levels. The key is to find the “most optimal” entry window based on odds.

Short-term BTC Trend: The Real Downward Opportunity After the Rebound Trap

I believe the rebound target will not be too high. The main resistance is concentrated around $94,500, and a more realistic rebound range should be between $90,000 and $92,000. This range often becomes a position for short-sellers to set up, and once a breakout fails, the price tends to weaken again. From the roulette odds perspective, the current “half-rebound, half-hesitation” position is not an ideal buying point—odds are not yet attractive enough.

Odds Mechanism for Support Break

A truly comfortable entry window should appear at lower levels. If BTC’s key support at $87,000 is effectively broken and accompanied by a rapid decline to the $85,000–$86,000 range, such moments of “irrational selling pressure release” will significantly improve the odds. This extreme panic often corresponds to more concentrated chip accumulation, providing stronger support for subsequent rebounds. In other words, waiting for a “more desperate” moment might offer a higher safety margin than jumping in now.

Rebound Expectations for ETH and Altcoins

From a larger perspective, ETH and altcoins still tend to rebound, but BTC has already deteriorated and is unlikely to hit new highs again. Whether new highs can be achieved depends on whether there is positive news support. Regarding a reversal in 2026, I tend to believe that after a significant decline, a rebound is still likely—especially for altcoins.

Currently, altcoins have depreciated to near zero levels. If altcoins do not rally, they will never ignite retail investors’ enthusiasm, and newcomers will not enter. Ultimately, this will only increase exchange risks. From the roulette odds perspective, the “despair” of altcoins may itself contain the seeds of a rebound.