XRP Cycle Analysis: SMA 50-week warning as price approaches $0.27

A new analysis has shed light on a recurring pattern in XRP’s price action over many years. By examining the interaction between the price and the 50-week moving average (SMA 50), technical expert Steph Is Crypto has identified a concerning pattern that XRP may face in the coming months.

SMA 50-week: An important indicator in market cycle analysis

The 50-week SMA is not an arbitrary indicator. When analyzing historical data from 2015 to present, we see a clear pattern: every time XRP fails to hold support above this SMA, the long-term trend shifts downward, and the moving average becomes a strong resistance barrier.

According to the analysis, when the price drops below the 50-week SMA, it is very difficult to return. Instead, repeated failed retests lead to more severe declines. This is not just theory — it has been proven by real data across three major cycles.

Historical pattern: Repeating down cycles over the years

In 2015, XRP experienced a decline of 75.03% from its local high after losing support at the SMA. Four years later, in the 2018 cycle, this pattern repeated but with greater intensity — XRP declined by 85.77%. By 2022, despite market changes, this law still reappeared with a decline of 68.61%.

These numbers are not coincidental. They reflect a consistent market behavior: whenever the 50-week SMA is broken downward, the long-term trend shifts to bearish, signaling upcoming major corrections.

Current price action: The alarm bell has sounded

Currently, XRP is trading at $1.76, down 2.75% in the past 24 hours. Notably, the price recently experienced a sharp decline. After recovering in early January, XRP approached the 50-week SMA but could not firmly establish above it.

According to Steph Is Crypto’s analysis, these failed retests — represented by white lines on the chart — are warning signals. Each time XRP fails to break above the SMA, it gets pushed lower, mirroring previous cycles.

Support level analysis: Potential targets

If the historical pattern continues, XRP will face two main support levels. Based on past declines ranging from 68% to 85%, two scenarios are identified:

First target: $0.59 — A price level not seen since late 2024. This is an intermediate support where XRP might find active buyers.

Second target: $0.27 — A price level XRP has not fallen to since early 2021. This will be a psychological test for the market, as it represents a price zone not seen in nearly a decade.

Conclusion: When analysis meets reality

What Steph Is Crypto emphasizes is the importance of the 50-week SMA not only for XRP but for any long-term cycle analysis. The consistent pattern — breaking below the SMA, failing to recover, then further decline — has repeated across different market cycles.

However, it is crucial to note that no prediction is 100% accurate. Historical analysis provides a reference framework, but current price action can still produce surprises. If XRP does not recover quickly and surpass the 50-week SMA, the risk of larger declines becomes more real than ever.