1.23 Morning Silver Market Analysis

Good morning everyone! Today, silver continues its recent strong trend, with both domestic and international markets moving higher in sync. Supported by multiple core logical factors, the bullish trend is clear, but caution is needed regarding the volatility risk at key resistance levels. Based on the latest market data and market drivers, the specific analysis is as follows:

This morning, silver remains strong with no signs of weakening, rising in tandem across markets. As of now, it is quoted at 97.374, up 0.45% intraday, with a high of 97.531, just one step away from the previous target of 98.

It is worth noting that while silver maintains a correlation with gold, its elasticity is significantly higher than gold. Yesterday, gold surged then slightly retraced, while silver, supported by industrial demand and safe-haven funds, continued its unilateral upward movement, highlighting the current market’s preference for silver.

Bullish Support: Supply-Demand Gap + Industrial Demand Explosion

In the medium to long term, the tight supply and demand balance for silver continues to strengthen. On the supply side, global silver supply has been in a deficit for five consecutive years. The mine silver production in 2026 is expected to decrease by 0.6% year-on-year, and since most silver is by-product of copper and zinc mining, with long expansion cycles, it’s difficult to quickly fill the gap. On the demand side, industrial attributes are the core engine, with explosive growth in three major sectors: photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and AI computing power. By 2030, silver demand in photovoltaics is expected to double that of 2025; the silver per vehicle in new energy vehicles is three times that of traditional fuel vehicles; and AI servers consume 2-3 times more silver than traditional models. Moreover, silver’s conductive and thermal properties are almost irreplaceable, providing rigid demand that continues to support silver prices.

In the short term, geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts further activate silver’s financial attributes. Safe-haven and speculative funds continue to flow in, pushing prices through key resistance levels.

Potential Risks: Resistance Pressure + High Volatility

The silver market is much smaller than gold, and high volatility is the norm. After a rapid rise in silver prices, the 97-98 range has formed a short-term strong resistance. Intraday, after a surge, profit-taking may trigger a technical correction. Additionally, a rebound in the dollar, marginal changes in Fed policy expectations, or intensified capital battles between European and American markets could amplify short-term fluctuations, so caution is needed against the risk of “rising high then falling back.”

Today’s Trading Strategy Reference

Overall, continue with a bullish mindset, focusing on “trend-following + strict risk control,” avoiding blind chasing of highs, and prioritizing opportunities for pullback stabilization or breakout confirmation.

Long Position Strategy: ① Enter after a pullback stabilizes at 96.5-96.8 (London Silver), with a stop loss at 96.1. First target at 97.5-98, and upon breakout, follow the trend to 99-100. ② If London Silver volume breaks through 98, consider a light long position, with a stop loss just below the breakout level by 1-2 points, targeting extension towards previous highs.

Short Position Strategy: Only consider a small short after encountering resistance at strong resistance levels; do not bet solely on short positions. When London Silver encounters resistance and falls back at 97.8-98 with declining volume, consider a light short, with a stop loss above 98.3, targeting 97-96.5.

Summary

Today, the bullish trend for silver is clear, supported by the supply-demand gap, industrial demand, and macro safe-haven sentiment. Breaking through 98 is highly probable, with a potential to challenge 100 in the medium to long term. However, caution is needed regarding profit-taking pressure at short-term resistance levels. Operation-wise, focus on pullback-based long positions, add on breakouts, and strictly control risks to cope with high volatility. Pay attention to the key time window of 15:00-20:30 today (overlap of European and American trading hours), as trading volume will determine the subsequent upward momentum.