The recent movements in gold and silver have indeed been fierce. Spot gold has broken through the $4,200 per ounce level for the first time, while silver has posted its strongest start in 40 years, with annual gains exceeding 30% at one point. At first glance, it seems to be driven by rising risk aversion, but the story behind it is far more complex than the surface suggests.

This round of rally has clear new characteristics. First, the driving forces are not solely traditional inflation hedging logic. More fundamentally, it reflects a global reassessment of the credibility of sovereign currencies. Under the wave of de-dollarization, central banks around the world continue to increase their gold reserves, which indicates deep concerns about the future fiat currency system. Second, the surge in silver prices hides a surge in industrial demand—emerging industries like photovoltaics and AI data centers have transformed silver’s industrial demand from a traditional "monetary metal" attribute into a "strategic industrial metal." This is a fundamental shift in asset properties.

So, how does the crypto market view this? I think there are several layers of progression.

The first layer involves the competition and coexistence between gold and Bitcoin. Gold, as the recognized "ultimate store of value," will inevitably attract some traditional risk-averse capital inflows. This puts pressure on Bitcoin because it is still striving to solidify its narrative as "digital gold." In the short term, this is a competition for safe-haven funds. But in the long run, the two may form some kind of symbiosis—both benefiting from the increasing concerns over fiat currency credibility.

The second layer reflects macro sentiment. Gold and silver prices essentially serve as a vote on the prospects of fiat currencies and inflation expectations. Such an environment has always been a fertile ground for Bitcoin’s long-term bullish story. When traditional financial markets are repricing risk assets, the crypto market often presents opportunities.

The third layer signals capital rotation. The current situation is quite interesting—silver reserves are declining, yet corresponding ETFs are experiencing net capital outflows. This indicates that short-term retail investors chasing the top are starting to exit, and some profit-taking funds are beginning to look for an exit. These funds are likely to rotate into high-risk, high-elasticity assets, and the crypto market is perfectly positioned in this "value trough."

Essentially, investing is about betting on the future. When traditional assets and frontier technology assets rise simultaneously, it precisely indicates that the market’s expectations of a "changing situation" are heating up. In this context, Bitcoin is not just a hedging tool but also a bet on a decentralized, censorship-resistant financial system. The key is to distinguish between short-term emotional fluctuations and long-term structural changes.