#加密市场观察｜Liquidity Dilemma: Can This Rebound Sustain?

🔎 On-Chain + Macro Signals Reveal the True Nature of the Move
The current crypto rebound appears less like a genuine market recovery and more like a macro-driven reaction. Weak on-chain participation combined with improving global risk sentiment suggests this is a fragile rebound, not a structural trend reversal.
🌍 Macro Layer: Risk Appetite Is Steering Price
The short-term upside has been fueled primarily by global risk-on sentiment. Recent geopolitical and trade-related comments from U.S. leadership, alongside improving NATO coordination, have boosted U.S. tech equities and pushed the dollar slightly higher — pulling BTC and ETH along as correlated risk assets.
⚠️ However, this correlation cuts both ways.
Any shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations or renewed trade friction rhetoric could quickly reverse sentiment and pressure crypto prices simultaneously.
⛓️ On-Chain Reality: Participation Continues to Fade
Despite price stabilization, on-chain metrics tell a different story: • Retail activity remains muted
• Transaction growth is slowing
• New address creation continues to decline
BTC’s stable hash rate and ETH’s moderate ecosystem usage signal network stability, not expanding demand. In other words, fundamentals are holding — but they are not driving prices higher.
🚨 Key Risks to Monitor
1️⃣ Headline Risk
Fed communication and geopolitical statements remain dominant catalysts. A single negative headline could invalidate the rebound.
2️⃣ Liquidity Risk
Thin spot volume makes prices highly sensitive to large orders, increasing volatility and the risk of false breakouts.
3️⃣ Technical Risk
The medium- to long-term downtrend remains intact. Without a confirmed structural break, this move risks becoming a classic dead-cat bounce.
🎯 Critical Levels = Psychological Battle Zones
• BTC: $90,000 resistance | $83,000 downside risk
• ETH: $3,000 resistance | $2,750 downside risk
These are not just price levels — they represent confidence thresholds for bulls and bears.
🧠 Final Take
The market is currently defined by weak rebound + elevated uncertainty. Until liquidity improves and medium-term trend resistance is decisively broken, narratives of a full reversal remain premature.
📌 In this environment, survival depends on patience, discipline, and respect for risk — not chasing short-term optimism.
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