Ark Invest projects a sharp expansion of the crypto market through the end of the decade, estimating that bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of around $16 trillion by 2030, implying a price of roughly $761,900 per BTC under the assumption of a fixed supply of 21 million coins. The firm also forecasts that the broader crypto market could grow to approximately $28 trillion in total value, with bitcoin maintaining a dominant share.

In its Big Ideas 2026 report, Ark argues that bitcoin is maturing into the cornerstone of a new institutional asset class. The firm positions bitcoin primarily as a digital store of value, often compared to “digital gold,” and expects its long-term growth to be driven by rising institutional participation, increased adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs, expanding corporate treasury allocations, and gradually declining volatility.
Ark notes that institutional ownership is already significant. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and public companies now collectively hold about 12% of the total bitcoin supply. In 2025 alone, ETF bitcoin holdings grew nearly 20%, while public company holdings surged more than 70%, highlighting accelerating institutional demand.
Based on Ark’s projections, bitcoin’s market capitalization could grow at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 63% over the next five years, rising from around $2 trillion today to $16 trillion by 2030. While Ark has slightly adjusted its assumptions—raising its estimate for bitcoin’s “digital gold” opportunity after gold’s market cap surged, but lowering expectations for bitcoin as a safe haven in emerging markets due to the rapid adoption of stablecoins—the firm says its overall outlook for 2030 remains relatively stable.
Beyond bitcoin, Ark expects smart contract platforms to account for much of the remaining growth in the crypto market. The firm forecasts that smart contract networks could collectively reach around $6 trillion in market capitalization by 2030, supported by the expansion of onchain financial activity, tokenized securities, and decentralized applications.