Gold started to consolidate after a rally. This morning's upward momentum clearly slowed down, and it instead dropped several tens of points quickly. Currently, it is oscillating around 4790 with considerable volatility. The main logic supporting the current gold price remains risk aversion sentiment.

The ongoing escalation of international trade frictions is a key driver. The chain reaction triggered by the sovereignty issue of Greenland is expanding— the US has imposed tariffs on multiple European countries and threatened further price hikes, while the EU has immediately signaled preparations for countermeasures. Disagreements between the US and Europe have significantly intensified. Coupled with the long-term instability in the Middle East, market concerns over risk assets continue to accumulate. A large amount of capital is flowing into the gold safe-haven camp, forming sustained buying support.

More complexly, Russia has also joined the chorus questioning Greenland's sovereignty, making this issue increasingly multi-layered. This further reinforces gold's market positioning as the ultimate safe-haven asset.

From a technical perspective, gold has recently been oscillating upward above the short-term moving average, with an overall upward trend that is relatively clear. However, the problem follows— the rapid increase has led to obvious overbought signals, reflected on both 4-hour and hourly charts, indicating a need for a correction. The more likely scenario is a consolidation at high levels rather than a direct push to new highs.

Recent trend forecast: Today is likely to see gold fluctuate between 4770 and 4800, with continued battles between bulls and bears. If US-Europe trade conflicts continue to escalate, gold prices may test previous highs again; conversely, if profit-taking begins to intensify, downward pressure will follow. The core principle of trading strategy remains unchanged: avoid chasing rallies.

The key resistance level remains at 4880 to 4885. Once a volume breakout above 4890 occurs, it is advisable to increase positions accordingly, with the next target above 4900. At the same time, keep a close watch on the latest geopolitical developments and the US dollar index— if signs of easing appear, gold may face a phase of pullback, and position management should be strict.

Operational reference: go long around 4775 to 4783, with initial targets of 4810 to 4850. If volume increases effectively and it stabilizes above 4850, continue to look toward 4900. It is especially important to monitor the early morning lows; if broken, follow the trend and consider moderate stop-loss.

This content is for market analysis reference only. Please make cautious decisions in actual trading.