Friends completely cleared all digital assets at the end of last year, turning to gold and small-cap US stocks. Yesterday, when bragging to me, they casually said: "The secret to making money now is ABC—Anything But Crypto, you can make money in everything except the crypto world." It took me a moment to react.

Looking at the data for this year, it’s clear why they said that. Gold has risen over 60%, silver soared to 210%, the Russell 2000 in US stocks has been rising for 11 consecutive days, and the STAR Market 50 in A-shares jumped 15% in just one month. But what about Bitcoin? It has been hovering around the $100,000 mark for three months, recently showing five consecutive declines, sliding from 98,000 down to 91,000.

This is indeed a bit strange. You should know that the SEC has already given the green light for ETFs, Wall Street has long been flocking in, and even national strategic reserves are fully stocked. Yet, Bitcoin seems to be excluded, watching other markets celebrate. What’s really going on behind this?

There are three main reasons. First, Bitcoin’s role is somewhat like a "canary in the coal mine" for global liquidity. It often signals market tops or bottoms ahead of other risk assets, leading the way. Now that it’s stagnating, it might indicate that the upward momentum in other markets is also nearing its peak. Second, the world is tightening its monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is still shrinking its balance sheet, and the Bank of Japan has started raising interest rates. Both of the largest liquidity sources are pulling back. When the market lacks money, assets like Bitcoin that rely on liquidity naturally can’t rise. Third, the global landscape is changing. Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, and when faced with such uncertainty, big capital tends to run away. High-risk assets like Bitcoin are often the first to be discarded.

So, the issue isn’t just why Bitcoin is falling, but that its stagnation might be a warning sign of a market shift. This signal should not be ignored.