Bitcoin price faces a new round of bear market test, with the USD bottom expected between 56,000 and 60,000.

Data analytics company CryptoQuant recently issued a warning signal, indicating that Bitcoin prices may have entered a bear market phase since early November last year. According to the company’s latest research, Bitcoin may form a new bottom range within 2026, with prices potentially dropping to $56,000 to $60,000.

On-Chain Data Weakening, Bitcoin Price Under Pressure to Decline

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno emphasized in the latest analysis that the company’s developed “Bull Market Score Indicator”—a comprehensive technical and on-chain data measurement tool—turned fully negative in November and has not yet recovered. This shift in the indicator reflects multiple market signals issuing warnings simultaneously: Bitcoin price breaking below the one-year moving average, declining on-chain network activity, significant reduction in trading volume, and the large-scale liquidation events in October gradually depleting market buying power.

From the data perspective, this scoring system has returned to zero for the first time since the 2022 bear market, reinforcing the authenticity of the current downside risk. Moreno pointed out that unless there is a new liquidity injection at the macro level—such as a policy shift by the Federal Reserve—the market will find it difficult to quickly reverse the downward trend.

Demand Momentum Reversal, US Dollar Price Level as a Key Turning Point

Unlike previous bull cycle rebounds, this correction in Bitcoin prices is mainly driven by weakening demand rather than traditional supply-side factors (such as halving events). Moreno analyzed that in 2025, three major demand supports existed: expansion of US spot ETFs, increased risk appetite driven by the presidential election, and the rise of Bitcoin savings strategy companies. However, since early October, the growth rate of these demands has fallen below long-term trend levels.

More notably, US Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from net buyers to net sellers. In Q4 last year, these funds sold approximately 24,000 BTC, contrasting sharply with the previous year when they were actively accumulating. Meanwhile, Bitcoin savings strategy companies have built reserves of $1.44 billion, preparing for sideways or downward markets. This move itself reflects market participants’ cautious attitude toward the outlook.

Historical Comparison: This Correction Is Relatively Mild

From a price perspective, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,080 in October 2025, while the current price hovers around $89,940. If it ultimately falls into the predicted bottom range of $56,000 to $60,000, the retracement from the high is about 55%.

Compared to past severe crashes, this decline appears relatively mild. For example, during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell by 70% to 80%, far exceeding current expectations. Moreno believes that this more moderate correction reflects an evolution in market participant structure—entry of institutional funds has increased market stability, to some extent setting a “lower limit” for prices.

$70,000 Is the First Line of Defense; Timeline Needs Close Attention

According to Moreno’s assessment, $70,000 is the most critical support zone in the short term and an important psychological threshold for the market. If Bitcoin cannot stabilize at this level and regain upward momentum, further decline toward the bottom forecast range cannot be ruled out.

Regarding the timeline, Moreno revealed a more specific forecast framework: “Bitcoin retracing to the $70,000 USD level may occur within the next 3 to 6 months; as for the deeper $56,000 bottom, if it truly materializes, it might only appear in the second half of 2026.” This indicates that the market still has a considerable adjustment cycle, and investors should be prepared for continued volatility.

Rebound Depends on New Liquidity; Current Structure Warrants Caution

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s rebound prospects mainly depend on two factors: whether institutional buying can become active again, and whether the global macro liquidity environment can improve. However, CryptoQuant emphasizes that the current market structure bears similarities to the setup before the major crash in 2022, serving as a warning against excessive optimism.

Moreno urges long-term holders to avoid panic selling but also recommends closely monitoring the critical $70,000 USD level. If the market fails to rebound at this point, further downside risks will gradually emerge. Although this correction is relatively mild compared to historical standards, the duration and psychological impact remain noteworthy.