Will Bitcoin face the "halving curse" in 2026? Charles Schwab reveals the top 10 influencing factors

The world’s top brokerage firm Charles Schwab has issued a new warning: Bitcoin’s performance this year will be shrouded by an invisible “curse”—the infamous halving cycle effect in history. Although liquidity conditions have significantly improved and risk assets are on the rise, psychological expectations continue to exert pressure, potentially limiting the upside of cryptocurrency prices this year.

The Director of Crypto Asset Research and Strategy at Schwab’s Research Center, Jim Ferraioli, pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance this year is influenced by the interaction of “3 major long-term forces” and “7 short-term factors.” The tug-of-war between these forces will ultimately determine the overall trend for the year.

Dual Forces Driving the Market: The Battle Between Long-Term Fundamentals and Short-Term Volatility

From a long-term perspective, three pillars support the price of Bitcoin that cannot be ignored. First is the growth trend of the “global M2 money supply,” second is Bitcoin’s inherent deflationary supply characteristic, and third is the continuous increase in market adoption rate—these three forces form a solid foundation for Bitcoin’s value.

However, the short-term situation is much more complex. Jim Ferraioli emphasized that market risk sentiment, interest rate trends, the strength of the US dollar, seasonal factors, central bank liquidity, whale activity, and potential financial contagion risks—these 7 variables—each can influence recent price movements. Currently, BTC is priced at $89.89K, down 15.32% from the beginning of the year, illustrating the intense short-term volatility.

The Halving Cycle’s Psychological Curse: Will History Repeat?

The most concerning aspect remains the shadow of the “halving curse.” Based on historical data, Jim Ferraioli revealed a brutal pattern: Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in the third year after each halving. This is not a technical issue but a collective psychological expectation trap.

Despite improving fundamentals, many investors firmly believe in the “halving cycle narrative,” and this psychological expectation itself becomes an invisible hand suppressing prices—this is the essence of the “curse.” Data since 2017 shows that Bitcoin’s average annual gain from lows is about 70%, but Ferraioli expects this year’s gains to fall far short of the historical average.

Turning Positive: Abundant Liquidity and Policy Breakthroughs

However, not all is bearish. With the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), central banks are expanding their balance sheets again, and abundant liquidity will serve as a strong support for prices. Maintaining tight credit spreads and relatively clean market chips, if the stock market sustains risk appetite, cryptocurrencies as “ultimate risk assets” should benefit.

A key variable remains regulatory developments. If the U.S. Congress successfully passes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, institutional investors will accelerate their entry, providing a strong boost to break the halving curse.

The New Relationship Between BTC and the Stock Market: Decoupling in Progress

It is worth noting that the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is undergoing a reshuffle. Ferraioli pointed out that BTC still maintains a high correlation with large AI tech stocks, but its correlation with the overall stock market index has gradually decreased—this structural shift indicates that Bitcoin is gaining a more independent pricing logic and is no longer entirely bound by stock market fluctuations.

Overall, the fate of Bitcoin in 2026 hinges on the balance between the “curse” and “opportunity.” Factors such as abundant liquidity, policy breakthroughs, and institutional adoption provide reasons for optimism, but the psychological expectations brought by the halving cycle and the complexity of short-term volatility pose unavoidable risks. Investors need to precisely grasp the rhythm of these ten key influencing factors in this year full of variables.