Multi-asset imbalance between hot and cold | BTC price stagnates, while US stocks and precious metals hit new highs

The market has recently exhibited a rare phenomenon of uneven heat distribution. On one side, traditional assets are soaring, while on the other side, the cryptocurrency market remains quietly sluggish. The US third-quarter economic data released exceeded expectations, stimulating a continuous rise in US stock indices, and precious metal prices are unstoppable. However, during the same period, BTC prices have been oscillating within a narrow range, and this stark contrast has left many investors puzzled.

US Stocks and Commodity Markets Sing in Harmony

The US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate for Q3 reached 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3% and the previous 3.8%. The core PCE inflation rate remained at 2.9%, in line with expectations. More impressively, real personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.5% quarter-over-quarter, far surpassing expectations and the previous figure. This impressive economic data single-handedly ignited the stock market, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ nearly approaching all-time highs. The US stock indices are on the verge of setting new records.

The precious metals market is also riding the wave. Gold prices have broken through $4,500, and silver has created a historic milestone, surpassing $70 per ounce for the first time. Analysts believe that multiple factors are driving this rally—persistent inflation concerns, a weakening dollar boosting precious metals appeal, and growing global industrial demand. The simultaneous rise of stocks and precious metals is a rare occurrence in market history.

BTC Price Stagnation Difficult to Break

In stark contrast to the booming US stocks and commodities markets, the cryptocurrency market remains quiet. BTC is currently oscillating around $89,000, stuck in a range between $86,000 and $88,000 for a long time without any breakthrough. ETH’s performance is equally disappointing, as its price has struggled to return above $3,000, repeating the recent pattern of oscillation.

The decline in implied volatility further confirms the market’s dullness. The implied volatility of BTC and ETH has dropped over 5%, with medium- and short-term volatility falling more than 10%, indicating that market expectations for large fluctuations have significantly diminished.

Year-End Window Period Cannot Change the Trend; Fed Meeting Becomes the Key to Turning Points

QCP Capital’s analysis points out that the upcoming Christmas holiday and year-end settlement window will further suppress cryptocurrency market volatility, and the market is expected to remain calm in the short term. Institutional deleveraging and year-end tax-loss selling may increase short-term volatility, but without clear breakout signals, BTC prices and the overall crypto market are likely to continue in a state of oscillation.

The real turning point may have to wait until the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is announced. Analysts believe that the January Fed decision will be a critical moment to change the current dull situation, potentially providing new guidance for the market. Until then, patience is required as BTC prices and crypto assets await policy clarity.