Pi coin crash warning! Unlocking 4.6 million tokens in Japan, and an additional 55.8 million tokens at the end of January

Pi Coin January Faces Difficulties: Daily Unlock of 4.6 Million Tokens, an Additional 55.8 Million at Month’s End. Exchange Reserves of 419 Million Coins Exert Heavy Selling Pressure, Breaking Below the $0.20 Support, Targeting a Test of $0.15. Supply Growth Significantly Outpaces Demand Absorption.

Daily Unlock of 4.60 Million Coins Dilutes Scarcity

As the daily token unlock continues to grow, circulating supply keeps increasing, putting sustained pressure on Pi Coin’s price. Over 4.6 million PI tokens flow into the market each day, continuously weakening its scarcity. This ongoing issuance limits demand elasticity; even during brief rebounds, Pi Coin’s price is prone to shocks, which is one of the main reasons it has failed to rise.

With approximately 55.8 million PI tokens set to be released at month’s end, supply pressure intensifies further. These scheduled unlocks reinforce market expectations of steady token supply. Consequently, buyers are hesitant to invest actively, recognizing that supply growth is mechanical rather than driven by voluntary market sentiment. Despite recent upgrades to application payment methods, this pressure persists because utility growth has yet to translate into immediate demand absorption.

The daily unlock of 4.6 million coins is substantial in absolute terms. At current prices around $0.18, this equates to approximately $828,000 in new supply daily. This continuous and predictable selling pressure makes it difficult for Pi Coin to develop sustained upward momentum. Any buying must first absorb this incremental supply before pushing prices higher.

More critically, the concentrated release of 55.8 million coins at month’s end will create a massive supply shock in a short period. This amounts to a concentrated sell pressure of about $10.04 million (based on current prices), far exceeding the market’s normal absorption capacity. Historical experience shows that large-scale token unlocks often lead to sharp price declines, as markets struggle to digest such a huge supply quickly.

Pi Coin Supply Pressure Data

Daily Unlock: 4.60 million coins (about $828,000)

End-of-Month Concentrated Release: 55.8 million coins (about $10.04 million)

Exchange Reserves: 419 million coins (excess supply ready for sale at any time)

Supply Characteristics: Mechanical, continuous release unaffected by market sentiment

419 Million Coins on Exchanges Form a Selling Sword of Damocles

Exchange reserves further complicate recovery prospects. About 419 million Pi coins remain held on centralized platforms, reflecting strong market selling intent. This position typically constitutes excess supply and can quickly generate upward momentum. Therefore, once short-term demand appears, Pi Coin’s price will find it hard to sustain a rebound.

What does 419 million coins on exchanges mean? It’s a large portion of the current circulating supply concentrated in hot wallets that can be sold at any time. From a market psychology perspective, this is a very dangerous signal. Holding tokens on exchanges rather than transferring to cold wallets usually indicates readiness to sell at any moment, not long-term holding. This looming supply acts like a Damocles sword over the market, suppressing any upward attempts.

The correlation between accelerated unlocks and large foreign exchange reserves determines Pi Network’s current price outlook. Supply growth exceeds natural demand, so the market structure remains skewed toward distribution. Therefore, before the foreign reserves significantly decline, Pi Network’s price will face structural constraints.

Historical data shows that when exchange reserves are high, cryptocurrencies tend to struggle to form sustained upward trends. This is because any price rebound encourages holders to sell, and the large amount of tokens waiting to be sold on exchanges makes such selling easy to execute. Unless a strong demand catalyst emerges to absorb the potential 419 million coins quickly, Pi Coin’s price will remain trapped in its current predicament.

Technical Breakdown: $0.20 Support Turns into Resistance

(Source: Trading View)

Pi Coin Recently broke below its trading range, turning the previous support at $0.20 into resistance. This sharp decline broke the consolidation trend, shifting into a continuation of the downtrend. Once the structure was broken, the price did not attempt to rebound within the range but moved into a lower demand zone. Pi Coin’s price found temporary support near $0.18, but the rebound was weak. Buyers reacted defensively to the sharp decline rather than actively accumulating. This passive response limited the upward potential, making the price vulnerable to new selling pressure during minor rebounds.

Trend indicators confirm this bearish trend. Pi Network’s trading price is below the Parabolic SAR at 0.2084, exerting continued downward pressure. The directional change shows a negative indicator around 46, while the positive indicator is about 6, further confirming that sellers dominate. This stark contrast in bullish and bearish forces suggests any rebound may be a short-term technical correction rather than a trend reversal.

Additionally, the ADX value around 26 indicates the current trend has not yet ended. The ADX (Average Directional Index) measures trend strength; values above 25 are typically considered strong. A reading of 26 suggests the downtrend still has room to extend and has not yet entered exhaustion. Under current momentum, Pi Coin’s price may dip back toward the $0.15 support zone before stabilizing.

The $0.15 target is not arbitrary but based on previous trading clusters and technical extension rules. The decline from $0.20 to $0.18 is about 10%. If the downtrend continues, a further 10% drop from $0.18 would reach around $0.15. This zone could provide stronger support, representing the cost basis of earlier buyers.

Before prices return to previous ranges, Pi Network’s long-term outlook remains at risk of further decline. A classic technical rule states: once a support level is convincingly broken, it becomes resistance. Currently, $0.20 is such a level; any rebound attempting to test this price will face selling pressure from earlier holders trapped at higher levels.

Ecological Upgrades Cannot Offset the Flood of Supply

Despite upgrades to ecological payment methods, Pi Coin’s price structure remains weak. Recently, Pi announced an upgrade to app payment features, which should theoretically enhance the utility of PI tokens and stimulate demand. However, price performance shows that these ecological improvements have not translated into effective demand absorption.

This disconnect between fundamental improvements and falling prices reveals Pi Coin’s core problem: supply growth far exceeds demand growth. Even with ecological progress, the mechanical daily unlock of 4.6 million coins and the 419 million coins in excess reserves on exchanges create selling pressure that far surpasses the demand increase from ecological upgrades.

Token unlocks and exchange reserves continue to outpace short-term utility gains, which is the root cause of Pi Coin’s January predicament. Unless Pi can find large-scale ways to absorb supply—such as token burn mechanisms, staking incentives, or truly killer application scenarios—the supply-demand imbalance will keep suppressing prices.

Pi Coin’s long-term outlook depends on supply absorption rather than market sentiment. This means that even if the overall crypto market recovers, Pi Coin may not benefit unless its supply issues are addressed. For investors, Pi remains a high-risk asset until clear signs of supply absorption emerge; caution is advised.

Due to the overall crypto market crash in January and low risk appetite, Pi Coin’s price faces additional pressure. Its price more clearly reflects this pressure because the selling is driven by structural supply factors rather than mere panic. As Bitcoin and other major altcoins decline, Pi’s weak technicals exacerbate its downside risk. This environment will expose its vulnerabilities, making January a critical stress test for Pi Coin’s future price prospects.

Ultimately, the main conclusion of this analysis is that prices will continue to decline until they break previous support levels and see clear absorption. Until such a shift occurs, Pi Coin’s long-term outlook remains tense and weak.