A steady profit is really just one thing—repeatedly capitalizing on high-probability events.

Last week, a fan asked me: "I followed your strategy three times, two small gains and one small loss. Isn't that probability too low?" I responded by asking him: "If you flip a coin three times in a row, can you guarantee all heads?" He was stumped.

This principle sounds simple, but it is the true root of why most people lose money. Their mistake is one—mistaking short-term fluctuations for patterns, and chance for certainty. I have survived three bull and bear cycles in the high-volatility market of ZKP, relying on this very mindset. Today, I want to be honest with everyone and share.

**The First Lesson of Probabilistic Thinking: Admit Ignorance**

When I first entered the market, I was also obsessed, constantly pondering whether there was a "holy grail indicator" that could accurately predict rises and falls. The crash in 2018 woke me up—it showed me that the market doesn’t operate that way. Essentially, it’s a game of probability; the only certainty is uncertainty itself.

How should I think about it? Imagine yourself as a top poker player:

- Focus not on the outcome of a single hand, but on the total profit after 100 hands
- Bet big when holding good cards, and immediately fold when facing unfavorable situations
- Always base decisions on expected value, not luck

Let me speak with my real trading data. I have a ZKP breakthrough strategy with a win rate of only 58%, but the profit factor reaches 1.8. In other words, for every unit of risk taken, I can expect to recover 1.8 units in the long run. As long as I keep executing this logic, time will naturally allow mathematical principles to work.

**The Three Pillars of Systematic Trading**

The first is to find a probability advantage. Many traders dream of a 90% win rate, but they end up wiped out by rare black swan events. My strategy library includes a trend-following system with a win rate of only 35%. It sounds unimpressive, but its net profit data over the past three years is no joke. A low win rate isn’t scary; what’s scary is an insufficient profit factor—that’s the key.