MICA Observation | BTC hovers at key resistance, short-term correction risk increases

Based on the latest market observations, Bitcoin has experienced a consecutive rally and is currently in a delicate balance phase. As of January 21, 2026, BTC price hovers around $90,000 with moderate gains. MICA’s market analysis indicates that although the upward trend has been established, there is a clear short-term risk of correction, and investors should exercise caution.

Technical Analysis: Long-term Trendline Becomes the Key to Breakthrough

BTC is currently facing the core issue of being below its long-term downtrend line. Breaking through to higher levels is no easy task and requires sufficient accumulation within the current range. MICA believes that if BTC can stabilize at this level and regain footing, it will be favorable for challenging higher price targets.

However, from a risk perspective, the greatest downside pressure is at $93,000, which is right above the short-term trendline. If BTC indeed pulls back to this level and successfully halts its decline, it could reinforce its long-term upward pattern, which is a significant technical signal to watch.

On-Chain Movements: Large Withdrawals Hint at Whale Activity

A deeper analysis of exchange on-chain data shows unusual activity. When BTC broke through $96,000, Binance’s net flow data showed anomalies, with net outflows reaching nearly $3 billion. Even more noteworthy is that this scale rapidly expanded within just 15 days, from an initial -$1 billion to -$3 billion.

Historically, such rapid large outflows from exchanges often indicate that whales and institutions are accumulating coins. Simultaneously, increased retail buying on Binance coincides with large withdrawals, suggesting that major market players are quietly positioning, which could be positive for continued price appreciation.

Macro Background: Geopolitical Risks Are Hard to Assess

Yesterday, signs of easing in Iran emerged, with Trump stating there are no plans for attack, leading to a rebound in US stock indices. However, the rally in the crypto market did not continue, mainly because BTC has risen for two consecutive days and is stuck at key resistance levels, suppressing short-term upward momentum.

MICA reminds investors that although the current situation appears to be easing, given Trump’s past tendencies, it is possible he may adopt a “wait-and-see” approach—meaning actions might only be taken after the US stock market closes on Friday. Therefore, close monitoring of Middle East developments over the weekend is essential to prevent sudden market volatility.