Federal Reserve Chair Race Takes a New Turn: Rick Rieder's Probability Rises to 27%, Congressional Confirmation Advantage Becomes Key

Polymarket Prediction Market’s latest data shows changes in the competition for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship. Rick Rieder’s chances have risen to 27%, making him the second most likely candidate, but Kevin Warsh still leads with a 53% probability. This competition reflects the market’s dynamic assessment of the candidates, while institutional investors’ betting signals reveal more hidden insights.

Comparison of Probabilities for the Four Major Candidates

According to Polymarket data, the current probabilities of the four main candidates for Fed Chair are:

Why Rick Rieder Is Suddenly Rising

Realistic considerations for Senate confirmation

Relevant reports indicate that one key reason Rick Rieder is gaining more attention is that the market believes he is more likely to gain confirmation from the U.S. Senate. This is not empty talk—nomination of the Fed Chair requires Senate approval, and confirmability directly impacts the final outcome. In contrast, other candidates may face more resistance due to policy stances or backgrounds.

Signals from institutional investors

More telling are the market’s genuine bets. According to reports, a newly created account continuously increased its bets on Rick Rieder as the next Fed Chair over six hours on January 20, with a total wager of $40,000 and an average cost of 14 cents. Such large, sustained bets usually reflect the views of informed institutions—they are voting with real money.

Wall Street policy expectations

Rick Rieder comes from BlackRock, representing a typical Wall Street asset allocation mindset. He focuses on risk diversification and macro hedging rather than ideology. This pragmatic style may better align with Trump’s “decisive action” approach—avoiding theoretical entanglements and focusing directly on results.

Hidden Positive Signals for the Crypto Market

Among the four candidates, one common point: all are relatively friendly toward cryptocurrencies. Rick Rieder has publicly stated that Bitcoin is a “perfect investment portfolio,” which is quite a straightforward stance among Fed officials. In comparison:

• Kevin Warsh maintains a technically open attitude toward blockchain and CBDCs but emphasizes rules and order
• Christopher Waller is more receptive to financial innovation and willing to promote development within regulatory frameworks
• Only Kevin Hassett’s stance on crypto remains relatively unclear

This suggests that regardless of who ultimately takes the position, radical anti-crypto policies are unlikely. Market liquidity and policy environment predictability may improve.

The Timeline Is Still Changing

It’s worth noting that the probabilities in this competition continue to fluctuate. In just the past three days, Rick Rieder’s chances have risen from 16% → 20% → 27%, showing a clear upward trend. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh’s probability has gradually fallen from 61% to 53%. This indicates the market is constantly absorbing new information—possibly from private statements by Trump, candidates’ policy performances, or new institutional movements.

Treasury Secretary Yellen previously said Trump might announce his pick as early as this week. This means the suspense won’t last long—the final answer could be just around the corner.

Summary

The rise of Rick Rieder’s probability to 27% is driven by both the realistic considerations of Senate confirmation and genuine institutional optimism. Although the fight for Fed Chair seems like a political game, it has substantial implications for financial and crypto markets. All four candidates tend to have moderate policies and openness to innovation, which could be positive for asset prices and liquidity environments. The final choice is still awaiting Trump’s announcement, but based on Polymarket data, the market has already formed its expectations—and those expectations are changing daily.