Fed Chair Race Sparks New Turmoil: Trump Supports Rieder and Warsh, Two Leading Candidates Confirmed

Trump once again publicly stated that BlackRock Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder and former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh are suitable candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair. This statement further confirms the positions of these two in the competition for the Fed Chair and also reveals more about Trump’s criteria for selecting candidates. Current Fed Chair Powell’s term will end on May 15, and Trump has promised to announce his successor within this month.

Candidate Competition Clarity

According to the latest news, the race for the Fed Chair has narrowed down to four candidates. Trump has interviewed all candidates, whose names include White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller, former Fed Board member Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder.

Latest data from prediction markets

Based on the odds on prediction platforms, support for each candidate has shown significant changes:

Notably, Hassett recently hinted that Trump is very likely to keep him in his current position, which suggests he may have already exited the race for Fed Chair. Although Rieder’s support rate ranks second, it has recently gained significant upward momentum, and some analysts believe he might be more likely to secure Senate confirmation.

Market “Voting”

A newly created account has been continuously betting on Rick Rieder as the next Fed Chair at prices between 15 cents and 18 cents over the past six hours, with a total bet amount reaching $40,000. Such large bets usually reflect strong market participant confidence in a particular outcome. While the specific reason is unclear, it may imply that some market participants have obtained additional information.

Trump’s Selection Criteria

Keywords: Loyalty and Decision Speed

Trump’s expectations for the next Fed Chair are very clear. He emphasizes the importance of loyalty and criticizes current Chair Powell for being slow to respond to rate actions. Trump hopes the new Fed Chair will be “decisive”—raise rates when needed, cut rates when necessary, and never be verbose.

These two criteria have directly influenced the candidate screening process. Warsh and Rieder are both considered to meet Trump’s requirements—Warsh, as a former Fed Board member, has central bank decision-making experience and is viewed as a reformist; Rieder represents Wall Street’s market-oriented thinking and is more flexible in responding to market changes.

Crypto-Friendly Potential Benefits

It is worth noting that all four candidates are currently considered relatively open to blockchain and crypto assets. Among them, Rieder has stated that Bitcoin should be part of a “perfect investment portfolio,” which to some extent indicates his recognition of crypto assets.

Future Outlook

Uncertainty About Announcement Timing

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that Trump might announce the Fed Chair candidate as early as next week. However, based on recent news flashes, this timeline may need updating. Although Trump promised to make a decision within January, the exact announcement time remains uncertain.

Potential Policy Style Shift

The appointment of different candidates will bring different monetary policy styles. Warsh represents a systemic reformer emphasizing rules and discipline; Rieder embodies Wall Street asset allocation thinking, focusing more on macro liquidity. These contrasting policy styles will have different impacts on global financial markets, including the crypto market.

Summary

Trump has again named Rieder and Warsh, confirming their core positions in the competition for the Fed Chair. Although Warsh currently leads in prediction markets, Rieder has recently gained significant support, and the race remains uncertain. Trump’s criteria for the next Fed Chair—loyalty and decision speed—provide clear standards for evaluation. As Powell’s term ends on May 15, the final outcome of this personnel change will have a profound impact on the Fed’s monetary policy direction, and markets will continue to closely monitor this development.