At 3:30 AM, BTC quotes at 88,300. Watching it drop from 92,500 all the way down to 88,500, a 4,000-point swing, I have some thoughts. Some are eager to act, while others have long stepped back. Instead of obsessing over it, better to review—last time, a move up to 93,000 was stopped out, and a move down to 92,500 took profit. The most profound feeling from these switches is the weight of stop-losses. Not developing this habit will eventually lead to losses.

Looking at the daily K-line, before this post, it surged to a high of 90,600, then fell back to 87,200. The EMA trend indicator was originally contracting upward but was forcibly reversed downward. Currently, the indicator is stuck above the golden ratio 0.786 line (around 90,360). If it continues downward, breaking below 90,000 is highly probable. The MACD is decreasing in volume and trending downward, and the Bollinger Bands have also contracted. The K-line has been hugging the lower band at 87,500 for two days. It’s common for the main force to test a pullback around 87,500, so this level warrants attention.

Switching to the four-hour chart, after midnight, trading volume suddenly increased, revealing signs of rapid rises and falls. Resistance is at 90,500 above, while the lower Bollinger Band at 87,400 is still under pressure. The EMA indicator continues to expand downward, MACD is decreasing in volume and heading lower, and both DIF and DEA are weakening below the zero line. Overall, the pattern suggests further downside space, with the key short-term support still being at 87,500.

Here’s a short-term framework for reference:

If the lower range of 87,500 to 86,500 holds, consider a northbound move, with a stop-loss set at 400 points, targeting 88,500 to 89,500, and a break below that points to 90,500.

If the upper range of 91,500 to 92,000 holds, consider a southbound move, with a similar 400-point stop-loss, targeting a retest of 90,500 to 89,500, and a break below that directly to 88,500.

Regardless of the scenario, the most important thing is risk management—set your stop-loss properly. Small losses and big gains are the sustainable logic. The market never offers a 100% certainty; real-time market data is always the final judge.