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Goldman Sachs has conflicting outlooks on gold and crude oil—2026 commodity market development forecast
Goldman Sachs’s latest product market outlook report for 2026 highlights a significant divergence between the precious metals and energy sectors. According to the report, as asset reallocation in the global economy accelerates, gold and Brent crude oil prices are expected to follow entirely different trends.
Dual Effects of Central Bank Gold Buying Support
Regarding gold prices, Goldman Sachs maintains its 2026 forecast at $4,900. This upward outlook is supported by two strong factors. First, central banks worldwide are accelerating gold purchases as a countermeasure against geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties. Goldman Sachs’s analysis suggests that central banks will continue to buy approximately 70 tons per month.
Another noteworthy point is the entry of private investors. The bank’s analysts point out that a mere 1 basis point increase in private sector asset allocation to gold can lead to about a 1.4% rise in gold prices, indicating the significant impact individual investors’ actions have on the overall market.
Brent Crude Oil Price Decline Outlook and Supply Excess
On the other hand, the energy market presents a completely different picture. Based on information from PANews, Goldman Sachs’s report states that 2026 will be the last year of stabilization in global oil supply fluctuations, and Brent crude oil prices are expected to face substantial downward pressure. Specifically, an oversupply of 2 million barrels per day is projected to cause Brent crude oil prices to fall to an average of $56 per barrel in 2026, reaching a bottom around mid-year.
Geopolitical Risks and Asset Allocation Strategies of Emerging Countries
The contrasting movements of gold and Brent crude oil prices are rooted in differing assessments of geopolitical risks. Central banks in emerging countries are increasing demand for gold amid rising geopolitical tensions, while the oil market’s outlook for supply chain stabilization acts as a pressure factor on crude prices. If throughout 2026, a scenario unfolds where Brent crude oil prices decline while gold prices rise, investors’ portfolio compositions are expected to change significantly.