Cognitive Focalization Theory Unveiled: The New Phase of Bitcoin Adoption and the Ambitions of Strategy

Early 2026, the Bitcoin industry is at a major crossroads. While there is constant excitement and concern over short-term price fluctuations, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, strongly advocates for the importance of long-term fundamentals. At the root of this conflict is precisely the “Cognitive Focus Theory.”

In a recent interview on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast, Saylor emphasized that Bitcoin’s true victory lies not in short-term prices but in institutional and foundational adoption. This argument is based on a deep understanding that human cognition is a limited resource, and where focus is directed determines success or failure.

Escaping the Short-Term Price Maze: Why a Shift in Cognitive Focus Is Necessary

In the Bitcoin industry, there is a persistent tendency to overemphasize short-term price movements. Saylor repeatedly points out that this mindset is a fundamental mistake.

For example, he cited that despite Bitcoin reaching an all-time high 95 days ago, people are disappointed with the subsequent decline over the following weeks. This is a typical “Cognitive Focus Trap.” Focusing on short-term price swings causes us to overlook more important changes in fundamentals.

According to Saylor, evaluating Bitcoin’s true value requires at least a four-year time horizon. Looking back over the past 10,000 years, individuals who succeeded in ideological movements typically persisted for over a decade. Success assessments over 100 days or 100 months are inherently meaningless.

From this perspective, the current industry-wide “2026 price forecast” is a fundamentally flawed problem setup. Instead, the focus should be on Bitcoin’s long-term usability and market infrastructure development. Looking at the 4-year moving average in 2025, a bullish trend is clearly indicated.

2025 as a Turning Point: Institutional Adoption and the Significance of 200 Bitcoin-Holding Companies

2025 marked a historic turning point for Bitcoin. Several foundational advances were achieved simultaneously, regardless of superficial price fluctuations.

Acceleration of Institutional Adoption

The number of companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets increased from 30–60 in 2024 to about 200 by the end of 2025. What does this number signify? Saylor points out that, while there are approximately 400 million companies worldwide, the concern that the market can absorb only 200 Bitcoin holdings is misguided. Conversely, the real question is why only a few hundred companies.

Innovations in Insurance and Accounting

In 2020, when Strategy purchased Bitcoin, insurance companies canceled policies. For four years, Saylor had to continue insuring the company with personal assets. But by 2025, this situation dramatically improved. Insurance coverage for Bitcoin assets was restored.

At the same time, the introduction of Fair Value Accounting allowed capital gains from Bitcoin assets to be recognized as profit. For Strategy, this meant that despite losses, it could generate tens of millions of dollars in gains from its Bitcoin balance sheet.

Major Regulatory Shift

In 2025, the US government officially recognized Bitcoin as a primary digital commodity. Consequently, the regulatory framework for banks changed dramatically. At the start of the year, only a small amount of loans secured by $1 billion worth of Bitcoin could be obtained, but by year’s end, nearly all major US banks announced plans to start Bitcoin-collateralized lending. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley are discussing Bitcoin trading and settlement operations.

The Treasury Department issued positive guidance on including cryptocurrencies in the balance sheet, and the leadership of the CFTC and SEC expressed clear support for Bitcoin.

Completion of Market Infrastructure

CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) commercialized Bitcoin derivatives markets, and a tax-free exchange mechanism was introduced between BlackRock’s IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) and physical Bitcoin, valued at millions of dollars. This event symbolizes the maturity of the Bitcoin market.

All these advances occurring simultaneously in 2025 indicate an essential transformation in Bitcoin adoption.

Bitcoin as ‘Digital Capital’: Redefining Corporate Strategy Through Cognitive Focus

A particularly important aspect of Saylor’s argument is the “misplaced cognitive focus” among Bitcoin-holding companies.

Some critics view corporate Bitcoin purchases as “speculation” or “money-making.” However, this perspective is fundamentally mistaken. Companies holding Bitcoin are equivalent to factories owning power infrastructure. Power is a universal capital that drives all machinery, and Bitcoin is the universal capital of the digital age.

Consider a concrete case: a company that reports an annual loss of $10 million but holds $100 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, generating $30 million in capital gains. What should be criticized? The company that continues to incur losses and does not hold Bitcoin, or the company that is both losing and gaining profit?

From the perspective of Cognitive Focus Theory, there is a fundamental misunderstanding in the industry. The focus should not be on the company’s Bitcoin holdings but on the overall value creation of the company’s management. A company that suffers losses but offsets them with Bitcoin holdings, thereby creating overall value, should be evaluated for its management skills.

All 400 million companies worldwide could theoretically purchase Bitcoin. Why do doubts about market absorption arise for only 200 companies? Behind this doubt lies a cognitive bias—an inability to understand Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

Entering the Digital Credit Market: Strategy’s Vision and the Shift in Market Perception

Underlying Saylor’s push for institutional adoption of Bitcoin is a larger ambition: a business transformation of Strategy itself.

Digital Credit: A $10 Trillion Market

Strategy’s ultimate vision is to create a “Digital Credit” market based on Bitcoin as digital capital. Importantly, Strategy has no interest in banking.

Instead, it aims to leverage US dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness and offer digital credit products. What would be an ideal product? A listed product with a 10% dividend yield and a V-value of 1–2 times.

Capturing 10% of the US Treasury bond market would amount to a $10 trillion market. This is the theoretical potential of Strategy’s product. Why not pursue banking? Saylor states it is to avoid dispersing focus. The philosophy is to concentrate management resources on developing the world’s best digital credit products.

Dollar Reserves and the Psychology of Credit Investors

Strategy is currently setting up dollar reserves and Bitcoin reserves to improve corporate creditworthiness. From the perspective of credit investors, volatility in Bitcoin and stocks exceeds acceptable limits. Holding dollar reserves enhances credit ratings and increases the attractiveness of digital credit products.

This strategy is a clever application of Cognitive Focus Theory. The focus of credit investors is on “creditworthiness.” By directly influencing this focus, Strategy aims to strengthen its market position.

Market Size and Competitive Environment

An important legal point emphasized by Saylor is that a company’s stock price is influenced not only by current capital utilization but also by what it can do in the future. Since Strategy has not yet implemented certain initiatives, it does not mean it cannot.

There are numerous opportunities to develop Bitcoin-backed derivatives, exchanges, and insurance businesses. Currently, there are zero companies worldwide engaged in Bitcoin-backed insurance. The digital credit market, in terms of scale and potential, is far larger than the senior or corporate credit markets.

Conclusion: Long-Term Perspective Unlocks New Markets

Saylor’s argument may seem like mere Bitcoin advocacy at first glance. However, at its core lies a profound insight called “Cognitive Focus Theory.”

The difference between industry players and investors focusing on short-term price forecasts and Saylor focusing on long-term foundational building over ten years is simply a difference in where their cognitive focus lies. As Bitcoin adoption accelerates, banking system integration advances, and market infrastructure matures, those with misplaced focus will miss significant opportunities.

Meanwhile, Strategy’s digital credit vision aims to create a new market worth $10 trillion alongside Bitcoin market maturation. This also highlights the importance of shifting cognitive focus. What the entire industry chooses to focus on will determine the winners and losers after 2026.