RIVER's recent rally has indeed been fierce. A 24-hour increase of 30.65%, with trading volume skyrocketing nearly 40 times, looks extremely impressive at first glance. But I have to be honest—this upward momentum makes me nervous.

Why? Just look at the technicals. The 4-hour RSI has already surged to 75.6, fully entering overbought territory, which is a typical sign of emotion-driven rallies. The MACD histogram has turned negative, and on the 1-hour chart, there are signs of divergence. Simply put—this is a signal that buying momentum is starting to weaken.

Once the main players start to distribute, can this price hold? Honestly, it's very unlikely. The risk of a quick retracement is alarmingly high.

From a technical perspective, if the price can stay above 43.5 and break previous highs, there might still be some short-term inertia pushing it higher. But the problem is, at this point, the risk-reward ratio is extremely poor—you’re risking much more than you stand to gain.

My decision is clear: **Currently, I am on the sidelines**. Chasing the high at this level is unwise.

But don’t completely give up on the opportunity. If RIVER pulls back to the 38.0-40.0 USDT range and stabilizes (which is a strong support zone), I would consider a small long position with no more than 15% of my capital. The key is to set a strict stop-loss below 37.0 and target 45.0. Otherwise, I’d rather miss this wave than make reckless moves.

Remember, position control always comes first. Greed is the biggest enemy in trading.