ETH liquidation intensity is severely unbalanced, with the risk of breaking through $3051 being 2.5 times the downside of $2764.

2026-01-21 18:31:44

According to the latest data, the liquidation intensity in the ETH derivatives market shows a clear asymmetry, with upward pressure far exceeding downward support. If ETH breaks through $3051, the total short liquidation strength on mainstream exchanges will reach $1.355 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2764, the long liquidation strength will be only $531 million. This significant difference reflects market participants’ divergent outlooks and also implies different levels of risk in each direction.

Signs of Imbalance in Liquidation Intensity

Risk differences in upward and downward directions

The comparison of liquidation intensities at two key price levels is as follows:

Price Level	Trigger Direction	Liquidation Strength	Risk Characteristics
$3,051	Break upward	$1.355 billion	Large concentration of shorts, significant resistance to upward movement
$2,764	Break downward	$531 million	Relatively dispersed longs, weaker downside buffer

This means the liquidation intensity above is 2.55 times that below. Such asymmetry usually indicates two issues: first, market bears have accumulated a large number of shorts and are cautious about rising; second, the bullish support is relatively weak, and a downward trigger could lead to a chain of liquidations.

Key levels at the current price

Based on the latest data, ETH is currently priced at $2,902.31, between the two key levels. This position is interesting: it is only about $150 (roughly 5%) below the upper resistance at $3,051, and about $138 (roughly 4.8%) above the lower support at $2,764. From a technical perspective, the price is quite close to the resistance above, which explains why the short liquidation strength is so high.

It is worth noting that ETH has fallen 13.12% over the past 7 days and 3.13% in the last 24 hours. This downward momentum may be strengthening the confidence of bears, prompting them to set more shorts as a defense above.

Market Behavior Confirmation

Multiple trading data points confirm this market divergence:

Major whales in swing trading sold 10,000 ETH before the price dropped, exiting at an average price of $3,321, with a profit of $1.51 million, indicating large holders are willing to reduce positions at high levels.
A trader is currently in an unrealized profit of over $1.83 million from shorting ETH while simultaneously opening 40x leveraged longs on BTC, showing a divergence in outlook—bearish on ETH, bullish on BTC.
Trend Research’s unrealized gains on 626,700 ETH have narrowed to $61.7 million, indicating that institutional holders’ paper profits are shrinking.

These behaviors point to a consensus: the market is currently cautious about ETH’s upward potential, with bearish forces relatively strong.

Risk Assessment and Market Implications

Upward risk

If ETH breaks through $3051, the liquidation of $1.355 billion in shorts could trigger a chain reaction, further pushing prices higher. However, this also means significant resistance above, making a breakout challenging.

Downward risk

If ETH falls below $2764, the $531 million in long liquidations, though smaller in volume, are relatively concentrated and could accelerate the decline. Moreover, the difference in liquidation intensity indicates that support below is evidently weak.

Market implications

This imbalance reflects a relatively pessimistic short-term outlook for ETH. Not only do bears hold a numerical advantage, but they are also more active in risk defense. This may be related to recent downward momentum or could reflect broader macroeconomic concerns.

Summary

The imbalance in liquidation intensity in the ETH derivatives market is a noteworthy signal. The 2.55x difference between $1.355 billion above and $531 million below indicates that bears are more defensive above, while bulls are relatively weaker below. The current price of $2,902 is situated between these two key levels, and any breakout in either direction could trigger significant liquidations.

From trading behavior, large holders and institutions are currently cautious about ETH, consistent with the direction of the liquidation imbalance. The key focus moving forward is whether ETH can hold support around $2,902 and whether there is enough buying interest to challenge the resistance at $3,051.

ETH-3.15%

BTC-0.81%

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