Many people in the crypto circle are watching CPI, non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's dot plot, but in fact, what truly determines the liquidity pattern for the next 1-2 years is who sits in the chair—the Federal Reserve Chair.

Why is this so critical? Simply put, the Federal Reserve Chair has three main tasks: setting monetary policy, managing expectations, and deciding whether to loosen or tighten the money supply. Ultimately, the market in the crypto world depends on this liquidity.

What is the market doing now? Powell's term is about to end, and the White House is nominating the next Chair. The entire market is betting on the same question: Will the new Chair be more "market-friendly"?

This depends on two scenarios. If a more dovish candidate is chosen, with earlier rate cuts and more confident statements, risk appetite will immediately increase, and funds will hold onto high-volatility assets. In crypto terms: BTC, ETH have room to grow, and various altcoins might have a chance.

Conversely, if a hawkish candidate is selected, prioritizing inflation control, the easing cycle will be tightly restrained, bond yields will rise, overvalued assets will be sold off first, and the market will ultimately remain sideways or volatile.

But there's a trap many people haven't noticed—the market's biggest fear isn't hawkishness, but uncertainty. Before the candidate is confirmed, sentiment fluctuates repeatedly, volatility is amplified, and any upward movement can be interrupted at any time.

From another perspective, the next Federal Reserve Chair isn't really a news event but an invisible switch that determines the future bull or bear market. Smart money has already started betting on certain styles in advance, long before the official announcement, chasing the trend.