Trump hints that the new Federal Reserve Chair may change stance; Wosh is the top favorite candidate

On January 21, Trump stated that he will soon announce a new Federal Reserve Chairperson and hinted that “once in office, the new Chair will change their stance.” This remark drew market attention because it suggests an expected shift in the Fed’s policy direction. Meanwhile, according to the latest market forecast data, former Fed Governor Kevin Wirth has become the leading candidate for the next Fed Chair, with the probability soaring to about 60%.

Latest Landscape of Fed Chair Candidates

According to reports on January 19, there have been significant changes in the Fed Chair race over the past few days. After Kevin Hasset expressed his desire to remain in his current White House position, he has essentially exited the race for Fed Chair, with his probability dropping from a balanced level to 15%–16%.

The current main candidates include:

• Kevin Wirth (former Fed Governor): approximately 60%, clear front-runner
• Christopher Waller (current Fed Governor): approximately 13%–14%
• Rick Reeder (BlackRock executive): also within consideration

The current Fed Chair Powell’s term will end on May 15. Trump has indicated plans to announce a successor within January but has not provided a specific timetable.

What Does Trump’s Statement Mean

Trump’s remark that the new Chair “will change their stance once in office” warrants careful analysis. Considering the current market context, this likely implies:

Expectations of a policy stance shift

Wirth, regarded as a “hawkish” candidate, has been seen as favoring tighter monetary policy. However, Trump’s statement suggests that whoever is elected, the new Chair will adjust their approach to better align with Trump’s policy preferences—likely shifting from a “hawk” to a more “dovish” stance. This reflects Trump’s consistent preference for easing policies, hoping the Fed will support economic growth rather than overly focus on inflation.

Implications for the Market

This signal is complex for the markets. On one hand, expectations of easing policies generally benefit risk assets. On the other hand, recent days have seen significant declines due to Trump’s tariff threats—on January 19, Bitcoin fell to $92,000, Ethereum dropped below $3,200, with over $800 million in long positions liquidated. The market now faces multiple layers of policy uncertainty.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

Based on current information, several key timelines are worth noting:

Within January: Trump plans to formally announce the new Fed Chair, though no specific date has been given.

Senate Review: Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the Senate is expected to approve Trump’s final candidate, though this process may have uncertainties.

May 15: The deadline for Powell’s term ending, with the new Chair needing to complete the transition before then.

Summary

Trump’s statement about the new Fed Chair “changing their stance” essentially reflects his expectations for the Fed’s policy direction—from a more hawkish to a more dovish stance. While Wirth currently has the highest probability, Trump’s personnel decisions are often unpredictable, and the final outcome remains uncertain. For the crypto markets, changes in the Fed Chair and policy outlook are key factors influencing short-term trends, requiring close attention to official announcements and Senate review progress.