Bitcoin breaks historic barrier as institutions solidify positions in 2026

Bitcoin started January with a strong performance, surpassing the US$ 94,000 mark on Monday’s session and consolidating gains that reflect a coordinated movement of safe-haven assets amid geopolitical turbulence. According to data from Bitstamp, the leading cryptocurrency reached US$ 94,752, while more recent data indicate approaching the level of US$ 96.67K with a positive variation of 1.78% in the last 24 hours. The US military operation in Venezuela served as a catalyst for a capital flight toward store of value assets, simultaneously benefiting gold (which jumped 2.5% to US$ 4,455 per ounce), technology stocks (S&P 500 and Nasdaq with gains close to 1%), and scarce assets like bitcoin.

Institutional Offensive Reshapes the Market Map

The most significant story at the start of this year comes from Strategy, which reaffirmed its aggressive accumulation thesis by acquiring 1,283 bitcoins for approximately US$ 116 million. The portfolio of the world’s largest corporate holder now totals 673,783 units, valued at US$ 62.6 billion at current prices. Michael Saylor, the company’s co-founder, simultaneously increased cash reserves to US$ 2.25 billion—a strategic hedge against volatility that allows maintaining the recurring purchase program regardless of short-term fluctuations.

Strategy is not acting alone. The Japanese company Metaplanet solidified its position as the fourth-largest public holder, accumulating 35,102 bitcoins valued at US$ 3.25 billion. Together, publicly traded companies control approximately 1.09 million bitcoins—equivalent to 5.21% of the total circulating supply. This institutional concentration reinforces the scarcity narrative and shows a linear correlation with previous rally cycles: higher corporate accumulation often precedes larger movements.

Technicals See Open Doors, But With Cautions

Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe from MN Capital classify the current level as “the last obstacle” before the psychological barrier of six digits. Bitcoin has surpassed the 50-day exponential moving average and the opening level of 2025 (US$ 93,500), signaling recovered strength on 12-hour charts. Max Rager, another influential technical observer, indicates that a solid close above US$ 94,000 could trigger targeted moves toward US$ 100,000.

However, market veterans like Willy Woo issue critical warnings about the underlying quality of this appreciation. Despite the elevated nominal price, order books show limited depth—reduced liquidity contrasted with aggressive price movements. Woo notes that although transaction rates and on-chain indicators signal a local demand bottom, actual trading volume remains weak. Glassnode corroborates this by reporting spot volumes at the lowest levels since late 2023. The paradox: bitcoin rises with few buyers, creating vulnerability to bull traps if external scenarios stabilize.

Q4 Account: Temporary Losses and Repositioning

Despite the new buying spree, Strategy recorded an unrealized accounting loss of US$ 17.4 billion related to Q4 2025—directly reflecting the over 23% drop bitcoin suffered in the last months of the previous year. To mitigate tax impact, the company registered approximately US$ 5 billion in deferred taxes. (MSTR) shares reacted positively, advancing 4.8% in Monday’s pre-market, surpassing US$ 160, although still showing a year-to-date decline of over 58%—a clear sign of the intrinsic volatility that accompanies business models fully centered on crypto assets.

The Road Ahead: When Technical Strength Meets Depth

The outlook for the coming weeks remains optimistic according to Van de Poppe, although this analyst does not expect an immediate linear breakout to round numbers. January seasonally tends to bring price stimuli, but critical sustainability depends on consistent real volume entering spot markets. Without genuine network engagement—reflected in robust on-chain transactions—the movement risks being mere transient volatility in a shallow market.

The continuation of the upward trend will depend on firm support above US$ 94,000 during upcoming trading sessions, consolidating the foundation for the next step. Institutions have already positioned; now it remains to be seen whether retail will follow the signal or if this will be yet another historical bull trap before further progress.